ParetoGTICal 工作台ParetoGTICal workbench

四个问题Four questions · 目标表Objectives · 开放问题表Open problems · 计划Plan · 骨架图Skeleton · 动画Animation · 本次更新What's new · 前沿策略对比Frontier policies · 数据截至Data as of

这是什么项目? XMM-Newton 望远镜每次观测都会被软质子 (soft proton) 耀斑污染，必须用"好时间段 (good time interval, GTI)"把耀斑时间删掉。删多删少是一对矛盾：多删 → 剩下的数据更干净但更少；少删 → 数据多但更脏。ParetoGTICal 把这个取舍当作一个帕累托问题 (Pareto problem):在单次观测内部，用保留活时间 f_T 与连续谱约减因子 R = C_all/C_K 两个坐标给每个候选 GTI 打分，并用 Al-K、Si-K 荧光线的不变性做门 (gate),防止"挑噪声"伪装成"删耀斑"。它属于父项目 DiffuseXrayCalibration （校准 XMM EPIC 弥散发射分析），但有自己的问题、自己的认知操作系统 (cognition OS) 和自己的预注册 (pre-registration) 纪律。

What is this project? Every XMM-Newton observation is polluted by soft-proton flares, and "bad" time must be removed by keeping only good time intervals (GTIs). How much to cut is a genuine conflict: cut more and the retained data are cleaner but fewer; cut less and there are more data but dirtier ones. ParetoGTICal treats this trade-off as a Pareto problem: within one observation, every candidate GTI is scored by two coordinates — retained live time f_T and the continuum reduction factor R = C_all/C_K — with an Al-K / Si-K fluorescence-line stability gate that stops "selecting noise" from masquerading as "cutting flares". It is a sub-project of DiffuseXrayCalibration (calibrating the XMM EPIC diffuse-emission analysis), with its own question, its own cognition OS and its own pre-registration discipline.

新页（2026-10-16）：前沿策略对比 —— 十个 GTI 政策的光变曲线、帕累托前沿、31 观测一致性与 M31 竖直剖面，改进与"未检出"并列。同页还有 MS 策略专页。New page (2026-10-16): Frontier policies — light curves, Pareto fronts, the 31-observation consistency and the M31 vertical profile for ten GTI policies, with the improvements and the "not detected" side by side. See also the MS policy page.

四个问题，一屏作答Four questions, answered on one screen

现在在哪？
Where does it stand?: P001 已关闭（D006），答案否定：等保留率下率排名在任何主集上都不优于 2.filter。此后项目转向 误差预算判据 (C001)：多观测时一致性比信噪比重要。P002 F1（Al 线是否跟随角落粒子水平）只在 CDFS MOS2 上成立(b = 1.015 ± 0.030,TRACKS),其余三个集都是 b ≈ 0.6–0.7（INTERMEDIATE）。C1b（2.filter 内的不相交能段裁剪）在已消费数据上把观测内系统误差减半：12% → 5–6%（100 s cell），代价 20–26% 活时间。; P001 is closed (D006), negative: at equal retention rate-rank does not beat 2.filter on any primary set. The project then turned to the error-budget criterion (C001): over several observations, consistency matters more than S/N. P002 F1 (does the Al line track the corner particle level?) holds on CDFS MOS2 only (b = 1.015 ± 0.030, TRACKS); the other three sets all give b ≈ 0.6–0.7 (INTERMEDIATE). C1b (a disjoint-band clip inside 2.filter) halves the within-observation systematic on consumed data: 12% → 5–6% (100 s cells) for 20–26% of live time.
还有什么没解决？
What is unsolved?: ① 为什么 CDFS MOS2 以外的三个集都是 b ≈ 0.6–0.7（P002 F1 复制失败，原因未测）;② 100 s cell 上约 5% 的快速"白"残差从哪来（裁剪后仍在，不跟随角落，会从任何谱中平均掉）;③ 谱验证 (C2) 还没做 —— C001 的快速判据最终要用光谱一致性检验。; ① Why do the three sets other than CDFS MOS2 all give b ≈ 0.6–0.7 (the P002 F1 replication fails; causes untested); ② the origin of the ~5% fast residual at 100 s cells (it survives the clip, does not follow the corner, and averages out of any spectrum); ③ spectral validation (C2) is still to come — C001's quick criterion must finally be checked against spectral consistency.
接下来做什么？
What do I do next?: 按 PI 顺序（D011/D012）:(a) 冻结 C1b 滤波器已完成（H,B = 300 s,n = 1,在 2.filter 之内;打分 cell 尺寸已定 1000 s,Claude 受 PI 委托用实验选定）;（b) 一次新的 Lockman Hole 还原，同时检验 P002 F2 与冻结后的滤波器（派发时间由 PI 决定，不预设日期）;（c) P002 之后做 C2 谱验证。步骤格式见"如何接手"页 §5。; In the PI's order (D011/D012): (a) the C1b filter is frozen (H, B = 300 s, n = 1, inside 2.filter; the scoring cell size is set to 1000 s, chosen by Claude by experiment under the PI's delegation); (b) one fresh Lockman Hole reduction, testing both P002 F2 and the frozen filter (dispatched later by the PI's decision; no date invented); (c) C2 spectral validation after P002. Step formats on the "By hand" page §5.

目标表（PI 工作单，D002,2026-10-13）Objectives (the PI's work order, D002, 2026-10-13)

#	目标Objective	状态Status	最好的当前数字（来源）Best current number (source)	趋势Trend
1	事实纠错认知 OSFact-correct the cognition OS	DONE	D002 + I002：训练/保留集（19 训练、11 保留）2026-09-14 已冻结且已消费；两个度量族 R 与 G_Al；数据是 M31 MOS2 不是 CDFS。D002 + I002: the train/holdout split (19 training, 11 holdout) was frozen and scored on 2026-09-14; two metric families R and G_Al exist; the data are M31 MOS2, not CDFS. 来源：Source: `ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md` (D002); `insights/I002_historical_evidence_reconciliation.md`	→
2	扩展到 MOS1 + 空白场对照Extend to MOS1 + blank-field control	DONE	M31 MOS1 盲测（E002）与 CDFS 空白场盲测（E003,34/34 ObsID × 2 相机）均完成。E3 在所有主集上失败；CDFS 的增益方向一致但只有约 0.3%（描述性）。角落：CDFS 可用，M31 MOS1 太吵。Both halves done: the blind M31 MOS1 run (E002) and the CDFS blank-field blind run (E003, 34/34 ObsIDs × 2 cameras). E3 fails on every primary set; the CDFS gain is consistent in sign but only about 0.3% (descriptive). Corner: usable on CDFS, too noisy on M31 MOS1. `results/p001_m31_mos1/p001_endpoints_m31.json`; `results/p001_cdfs/p001_endpoints_all.json`; `cognition-os/experiments/E002_p001_m31_mos1.md`; `E003_p001_cdfs_blank_field.md`	→
3	定义下游成功判据Define the downstream success criterion	已定义（C001 v2），验证待 C2DEFINED (C001 v2); validation awaits C2	判据 = 误差预算（D007/D008）：单观测 σ_tot = σ_stat ⊕ ε·C_K；多观测先看一致性（拼接光变曲线的 s_sys，不随观测数下降），σ_tot,set = s_sys ⊕ 1/√N_counts。实测（2.filter,0.5–2 keV）：s_sys = 17–25%（观测内 11–13%、观测间 12–22%），而 s_stat 只有 0.04–0.2% —— 系统误差约是统计误差的 100 倍。C1 角落项把观测间部分从 ~12% 降到 3–4%；C1b 把观测内部分从 12% 减到 5–6%（100 s）。打分 cell 尺寸已定：1000 s（D012,Claude 受 PI 委托实验选定）；1000 s 上角落修正后 CDFS s_sys：2.filter 8.4%/8.0%、裁剪 3.7%/3.2%（MOS2/MOS1）。The criterion is the error budget (D007/D008): single observation σ_tot = σ_stat ⊕ ε·C_K; over a set, consistency comes first (the concatenated-light-curve s_sys, which does not fall with the number of observations), σ_tot,set = s_sys ⊕ 1/√N_counts. Measured (2.filter, 0.5–2 keV): s_sys = 17–25% (within 11–13%, between 12–22%) against s_stat of only 0.04–0.2% — the systematic is about 100× the statistical. The C1 corner term takes the between part from ~12% to 3–4%; C1b halves the within part from 12% to 5–6% (100 s). The scoring cell size is now set: 1000 s (D012, chosen by Claude by experiment under the PI's delegation); at 1000 s the corner-corrected CDFS s_sys is 8.4%/8.0% for 2.filter and 3.7%/3.2% for the clip (MOS2/MOS1). `prereg/C001_error_budget_criterion.md` §2/§2b/§3b/§3c/§3d/§3e; `results/c001_concat/c001_concat.json`; `results/c001_concat/c001_c1_corner_corrected.json`; `results/c001_c1b/c001_c1b.json`; `results/c001_cellsize/c001_cellsize.json`; `04_DECISION_LOG.md` D012	↗
5	Al 线是否跟随角落粒子水平？(P002)Does the Al line track the corner particle level? (P002)	F1 已跑；只在 CDFS MOS2 成立F1 run; holds on CDFS MOS2 only	F1 斜率 b（ln L_Al 对 ln Q，观测之间）：CDFS MOS2（主集）b = 1.015 ± 0.030 → TRACKS;CDFS MOS1 0.588 ± 0.020、M31 MOS2 0.602 ± 0.070、M31 MOS1 0.694 ± 0.050 → 全部 INTERMEDIATE。按 §6，"Al 线是粒子监测器"未在一般意义上确立；F2（观测之内）等 Lockman Hole。F3：CDFS MOS2 上线在观测之间跟随 Q、观测之内却不跟随 —— 指向线测量里的 K/B 系统误差（T005 处置）。The F1 slope b (ln L_Al on ln Q, between observations): CDFS MOS2 (primary) b = 1.015 ± 0.030 → TRACKS; CDFS MOS1 0.588 ± 0.020, M31 MOS2 0.602 ± 0.070, M31 MOS1 0.694 ± 0.050 → all INTERMEDIATE. Per §6, "the Al line is a particle monitor" is not established in general; F2 (within observations) waits for the Lockman Hole. F3: on CDFS MOS2 the line follows Q between observations but not within them — pointing to a K/B systematic in the line measurement (the T005 disposition). `prereg/P002_al_line_vs_corner.md` §9; `results/p002/p002_f1_cdfs.json`; `results/p002/p002_f1_m31.json`; `cognition-os/experiments/E004_p002_al_vs_corner.md`	→
4	开放问题：未曝光角落有没有用？Open question: is the unexposed corner useful?	已按数据集回答（D006）ANSWERED per set (D006)	精度（叠加 σ）:CDFS MOS1 = 0.0044、MOS2 = 0.0038 → USABLE;M31 MOS2 参考 = 0.0098 → 勉强可用；M31 MOS1 = 0.0133 → TOO_NOISY。它还在 CDFS 上看到了真实的 K/B 粒子级差：被删时间的角落 2.5–8 keV 率高 1.9%（MOS1,−4.3σ）与 3.9%（MOS2,−10σ）。新的开放子问题（未经预注册）：角落的粒子水平变化不带入门内 Al 线比。Precision (stacked σ): CDFS MOS1 = 0.0044, MOS2 = 0.0038 → USABLE; M31 MOS2 reference = 0.0098 → usable by a hair; M31 MOS1 = 0.0133 → TOO_NOISY. It also sees a real K/B particle-level difference on CDFS: rejected time has a 1.9% (MOS1, −4.3σ) and 3.9% (MOS2, −10σ) higher corner 2.5–8 keV rate. New open sub-question (not pre-registered): the corner's particle-level change does not carry into the as-gated Al-line ratio. `results/p001_cdfs/p001_endpoints_all.json` (E5); `03_TRUST_TABLE.md` T017; `E003_p001_cdfs_blank_field.md` §Reading 3§Reading 3	→

开放问题表Open problems

问题Problem	为什么重要Why it matters	当前最好的假设Best current hypothesis	下一个检验Next test	所有者 / 状态Owner / status
R 筛选在等保留率下是否优于归档 2.filter?Does the R screen beat the archived 2.filter at equal retention?	这是 P001 的主要终点；若不优于，方法的全部价值就只剩"选保留率"这一层。This was P001's primary endpoint; if not, the method's whole value reduces to "choosing a retention".	不优于（已关闭）：四个主集的 E3 全部失败 —— M31 MOS1 13/25（Z = 0.02）、M31 MOS2 21/29（Z = 1.64）、CDFS MOS1 24/29（Z = 1.55）、CDFS MOS2 27/29（Z = 1.73）。CDFS 上符号一致但增益约 0.3%，远低于 Z > 3;按 D7 记"持平"。Not better (closed): E3 fails on all four primary sets — M31 MOS1 13/25 (Z = 0.02), M31 MOS2 21/29 (Z = 1.64), CDFS MOS1 24/29 (Z = 1.55), CDFS MOS2 27/29 (Z = 1.73). On CDFS the sign is consistent but the gain is about 0.3%, far below Z > 3; "no significant difference" under D7.	已由 CDFS 盲测完成（E003）：证据收据 `p001_endpoints_all.json`。问题关闭。Done by the CDFS blind run (E003); receipt `p001_endpoints_all.json`. The question is closed.	T019 / 在 M31 与 CDFS 上被驳倒REFUTED on M31 and CDFST019 / REFUTED on M31 and CDFS
Al 线是否跟随角落粒子水平？(P002 F1/F2)Does the Al line track the corner particle level? (P002 F1/F2)	若跟随，P001 线门（L_K = L_B）就要允许 L_K/L_B = Q_K/Q_B;若不跟随，线门成立。这决定线门作为粒子锚是否可信（T005/T016）。If it tracks, the P001 line gate (L_K = L_B) must allow L_K/L_B = Q_K/Q_B; if not, the gate stands. This decides whether the line gate is a trustworthy particle anchor (T005/T016).	F1 已答（E004）：CDFS MOS2（主集）b = 1.015 ± 0.030 → TRACKS,横跨 2.2 倍的 Q 范围（2001–2019）;其余三集 b = 0.588 ± 0.020、0.602 ± 0.070、0.694 ± 0.050 → INTERMEDIATE。按 §6 未在一般意义上确立。F3：CDFS MOS2 观测之间跟随、观测之内不跟随 → 线测量里的 K/B 系统误差（T005）。F1 is answered (E004): CDFS MOS2 (primary) b = 1.015 ± 0.030 → TRACKS across a factor-2.2 range in Q (2001–2019); the other three sets give 0.588 ± 0.020, 0.602 ± 0.070, 0.694 ± 0.050 → INTERMEDIATE. Per §6, not established in general. F3: on CDFS MOS2 the line follows Q between observations but not within them → a K/B systematic in the line measurement (T005).	F2（观测之内）等一次新的 Lockman Hole 还原（派发由 PI 决定）;b ≈ 0.6–0.7 的成因需要自己的预注册（未测：MOS1 几何与 CCD 损失、M31 天空 1.49 keV 贡献、短杠杆臂、不激发 Al 的 Q 分量）。F2 (within observations) waits for one fresh Lockman Hole reduction (dispatched by the PI); the causes of b ≈ 0.6–0.7 need their own pre-registration (untested: MOS1 geometry and CCD losses, an M31 sky contribution at 1.49 keV, the short lever arm, and a Q component that does not excite Al).	T022 / 主集支持，复制未确认Supported for primary only; not replicatedT022 / Supported for primary only; not replicated
C1b 滤波器在新场上成立吗？Does the C1b filter hold on a fresh field?	C1b 是把 GTI 从"删耀斑"升级为"压观测内系统误差"的第一个具体候选；若在 Lockman Hole 上复现，C001 的 ~2% 目标（≥ 1000 s）就有一个可冻结的滤波器。C1b is the first concrete candidate that upgrades the GTI from "cutting flares" to "suppressing the within-observation systematic"; if it replicates on the Lockman Hole, C001's ~2% target (≥ 1000 s) gets a freezable filter.	在已消费的 CDFS 与 M31 上成立（T023,探索性）：观测内 11.6–12.7% → 4.7–6.0%（100 s）,观测间不升高（CDFS 2.1–2.8%）,代价 20–26% 活时间；H（2.5–8 keV）与 S（减半薄化）一致。未在新场或谱上验证。It holds on consumed CDFS and M31 (T023, exploratory): within 11.6–12.7% → 4.7–6.0% (100 s), the between term does not rise (CDFS 2.1–2.8%), at a 20–26% live-time cost; H (2.5–8 keV) and S (thinned halves) agree. Not validated on a fresh field or on spectra.	已冻结（D012）：H,B = 300 s,n = 1,在 2.filter 之内（commit abc5e602;打分 cell 1000 s）。下一步：一次 Lockman Hole 还原同时检验它与 P002 F2；谱上由 C2 检验。Frozen (D012): H, B = 300 s, n = 1, inside 2.filter (commit abc5e602; scoring at 1000 s cells). Next: one Lockman Hole reduction tests it together with P002 F2; C2 tests it on spectra.	T023 / 已消费数据上支持，未验证Supported on consumed data; not validatedT023 / Supported on consumed data; not validated
100 s cell 上约 5% 的快速"白"残差从哪来？Where does the ~5% fast "white" residual at 100 s cells come from?	它决定 C001 打分 cell 尺寸的选择：100 s 上它把观测内项顶在 ~5%,≥ 1000 s 时只剩 0–2.6%；它不跟随角落，且会从任何谱中平均掉。已定（D012）：主打分用 1000 s cell，100 s 与 3000 s 作诊断。It decides the choice of C001 scoring cell size: at 100 s it floors the within term at ~5%, at ≥ 1000 s only 0–2.6% remains; it does not follow the corner and averages out of any spectrum. Decided (D012): the primary score uses 1000 s cells, with 100 s and 3000 s as diagnostics.	两个未测的解释（E005/E006）:仪器事件聚簇（超泊松计数，100 s 处 Fano 因子 1.11–1.19,2.5 s 处 ≈ 1.03 —— 相关时间几十秒以上;非闪烁像素）,或裁剪阈值以下的快速软质子闪烁。检验方法：对只有粒子能到达的未曝光角落 0.5–2 keV 事件算同一统计量。Two untested explanations (E005/E006): instrumental event clustering (super-Poisson counting, Fano factor 1.11–1.19 at 100 s, ≈ 1.03 at 2.5 s — a correlation time of tens of seconds; not flickering pixels), or fast soft-proton flicker below the clip threshold. A test: the same statistic on unexposed-corner 0.5–2 keV events, which only particles reach.	建议（未经评审）：角落 0.5–2 keV 残差统计；结果并入 cell 尺寸或残差起源的后续决定（cell 尺寸本身已由 D012 定为 1000 s）。Suggestion (not reviewed): the corner 0.5–2 keV residual statistic; feed the result into the later decisions on the residual's origin (the cell size itself is already set to 1000 s by D012).	T023 / 未测UNTESTEDT023 / UNTESTED
反事实 Al 亏损（−0.028 ± 0.013, MOS2）是真信号吗？Is the counterfactual Al deficit (−0.028 ± 0.013, MOS2) real?	若真，则 L_K = L_B 这个设计级约束本身有偏差；若假，则是未建模系统误差。它决定线门是否可信。If real, the design-level constraint L_K = L_B is itself biased; if not, it is an unmodelled systematic. It decides whether the line gate is trustworthy.	P002 F3 已处置（E004）：在 CDFS MOS2 上，线在观测之间跟随 Q(b = 1.015 ± 0.030）而观测之内的 K/B 线比不跟随角落 —— 指向线测量里的 K/B 系统误差。这成为 T005 在 MOS2 上的主要处置；P001 线门（L_K = L_B）作为粒子锚仍未被验证。Disposed by P002 F3 (E004): on CDFS MOS2 the line follows Q between observations (b = 1.015 ± 0.030) while the within-observation K/B line ratio does not follow the corner — pointing to a K/B systematic in the line measurement. This is the leading T005 disposition for MOS2; the P001 line gate (L_K = L_B) stays unvalidated as a particle anchor.	P002 F2（Lockman Hole）与"K/B 线系统误差"的专门预注册；在此之前不关闭。P002 F2 (the Lockman Hole) and a dedicated pre-registration on the K/B line systematic; not closed before that.	T005, T016 / QUESTIONEDT005, T016 / QUESTIONED
角落能否预测 K/B 粒子级变化？Can the corner predict the K/B particle-level change?	角落在 FOV 外、不经望远镜聚焦，是最干净的粒子监测器；若够准，就能直接检验"Al 亏损 = 粒子变化"。The corner is outside the FOV and receives no focused soft protons — the cleanest particle monitor; if precise enough it can test "Al deficit = particle change" directly.	已回答（按数据集，D006）：CDFS 上够准（σ = 0.0044 / 0.0038）且看到了真实的 K/B 粒子级差（被删时间高 1.9% / 3.9%）;M31 MOS1 上太吵（σ = 0.0133）。所以 2.filter 也删掉了粒子背景升高的时段，不只是软质子时段。Answered (per set, D006): precise enough on CDFS (σ = 0.0044 / 0.0038) and it sees a real K/B particle-level difference (rejected time 1.9% / 3.9% higher); too noisy on M31 MOS1 (σ = 0.0133). So 2.filter also cuts periods of elevated particle background, not only soft-proton time.	已由 CDFS E5 完成。遗留的子问题（未预注册）：Al 线不跟随角落 —— 见上面新行。Done by the CDFS E5. Remaining sub-question (not pre-registered): the Al line does not follow the corner — see the new row above.	T017 / 已按数据集回答ANSWERED per setT017 / ANSWERED per set
被移除的成分是软质子还是可变天体源？Is the removed component soft protons or variable celestial sources?	这是"删掉的东西到底是什么"的身份问题；M31 盘里有很多可变 X 射线双星，是天体源解释的真实竞争者。This is the identity question — what was actually removed; the M31 disk holds many variable X-ray binaries, a genuine celestial competitor.	A1:移除的超额 ~79% 无线 (Al −5.96σ);B1:空间延展、非紧凑，更像软质子花样；但仍不能排除多个微弱可变源。A1: the removed excess is ~79% line-free (Al −5.96σ); B1: extended, not compact — closer to the soft-proton pattern; many faint variable sources are not excluded.	CDFS E6（描述性）：CDFS 的中位增益（+0.0035 / +0.0029）比 M31（+0.0005 / +0.0011）大 3–10 倍，但同样远低于阈值 —— 与"移除成分主要是软质子、M31 的可变源压低了增益"相容，不构成证明。The CDFS E6 (descriptive): the median CDFS gain (+0.0035 / +0.0029) is 3–10× M31's (+0.0005 / +0.0011) but still far below threshold — compatible with "the removed component is mostly soft protons, with M31's variable sources diluting the gain", not proof of it.	T009, T018 / NOT ESTABLISHEDT009, T018 / NOT ESTABLISHED

来源：ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md (T005, T008, T009, T016–T019, T021);04_DECISION_LOG.md (D002, D005, D006);E002_p001_m31_mos1.md;E003_p001_cdfs_blank_field.md。Source: ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md (T005, T008, T009, T016–T019, T021); 04_DECISION_LOG.md (D002, D005, D006); E002_p001_m31_mos1.md; E003_p001_cdfs_blank_field.md.

ParetoGTICal skeleton: event list → light curve → candidate GTIs → K/B → R and line gate → null → P001 endpoints → missing downstream criterion — 最新骨架。虚线框是全项目唯一缺失的下游环节：用父项目的响应折叠 (response-folded) 弥散天空拟合定义"曝光损失 ⇄ 连续谱增益"的兑换率（D002 第 3 步）。 The latest skeleton. The dashed box is the one missing downstream piece: defining the exchange rate between exposure loss and continuum gain through the parent project's response-folded diffuse-sky fit (D002 step 3).

未来 1–4 周计划（PI 顺序，D011/D012 与 briefing "Next steps"）Plan for the next 1–4 weeks (PI order, D011/D012 and the briefing "Next steps")

P001 已完成并关闭(D006);C1 与 C1b 已完成(D010/D011,探索性)；打分 cell 尺寸已定 1000 s，冻结滤波器 H,B = 300 s,n = 1（D012,commit abc5e602;工程干跑 SUCCESS）。P001 is done and closed (D006); C1 and C1b are done (D010/D011, exploratory); the scoring cell size is set to 1000 s and the filter H, B = 300 s, n = 1 is frozen (D012, commit abc5e602; the engineering dry run gave SUCCESS).
(a) 冻结 C1b 滤波器 —— 已完成（D012）。配对 bootstrap 打分器已随 scripts/c001_frozen_test.py 冻结。完整步骤格式见"如何接手"页 §5。(a) Freeze the C1b filter — done (D012). The paired-bootstrap scorer is frozen with scripts/c001_frozen_test.py. Full step format on the "By hand" page §5.
(b) 一次新的 Lockman Hole 还原，同时检验 P002 F2 与冻结后的滤波器。派发时间由 PI 决定（D011"后面再派"），不预设日期。完整步骤格式见"如何接手"页 §5。(b) One fresh Lockman Hole reduction, testing both P002 F2 and the frozen filter. Dispatched later by the PI's decision (D011); no date invented. Full step format on the "By hand" page §5.
(c) C2 谱验证（P002 之后，PI 决定是否等 F2）:把 C1 里最好的 2–3 个政策与 2.filter 用到 MosaicSelfCal CDFS 金/银 cell 上，按 LHB 与 halo 归一化的一致性 τ 打分，再上 M31CGM。成功标准：快速判据的排名与谱 τ 的排名一致。(c) C2 spectral validation (after P002; the PI decides whether it waits for F2): apply the 2–3 best C1 policies and 2.filter to the MosaicSelfCal CDFS golden/silver cells, score the consistency τ of the LHB and halo normalisations as the MosaicSelfCal spectral score does, then M31CGM. Success: the quick-metric ranking matches the spectral-τ ranking.
(d) 将来就 b ≈ 0.6–0.7 的成因立预注册（建议，未经评审）。完整步骤格式见"如何接手"页 §5。(d) A future pre-registration on the causes of b ≈ 0.6–0.7 (suggestion, not reviewed). Full step format on the "By hand" page §5.

来源：ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md §Next steps;04_DECISION_LOG.md D007–D012;prereg/C001_error_budget_criterion.md §3e、§4。Source: ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md §Next steps; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D007-D012; prereg/C001_error_budget_criterion.md §3e, §4.

一分钟看懂核心矛盾（动画）The core conflict in one minute (animation)

光变曲线 + 阈值滑块 → GTI、f_T、保留计数实时更新Light curve + threshold slider → GTI, f_T and retained counts update live

拖动阈值：蓝色是保留的时间 K,红色是被删的 B。f_T 是保留活时间比例；R 用玩具模型模拟"删高率时间为什么会让 R>1"。

Drag the threshold: blue is kept time K, red is rejected B. f_T is the retained live-time fraction; R uses a toy model to show why cutting high-rate time gives R > 1.

阈值Threshold 2.6 count/s

本次更新What's new

2026-10-16（第四次更新，新增前沿策略对比页；当日二次折入 D2 记录）:

2026-10-16 (fourth edition, a new frontier-policies page, with the D2 records folded in the same day):

新页面"前沿策略对比"（frontier.html）：十个 GTI 政策（2.filter、6 个搜索政策、MS_z3.5_core、EH_B1000_n2、Q_d0.05_n2、none）的光变曲线、单观测与全观测叠加的帕累托前沿、31 观测配对一致性、M31 竖直剖面，以及"某政策在前沿哪里"的下拉选择（选一个政策，两张前沿图换成它的高亮版）。每张图背后的"未检出"与"待 PI 决定"都写明。New page "Frontier policies" (frontier.html): light curves, the single-observation and stacked Pareto fronts, the 31-observation paired consistency, and the M31 vertical profile for ten GTI policies (2.filter, 6 search policies, MS_z3.5_core, EH_B1000_n2, Q_d0.05_n2, none), plus a "where does policy X sit" dropdown that switches both front figures to the chosen policy's highlighted version. The "not detected" and the "pending with the PI" are stated alongside every figure.
头条数字：在 25 个没人设计过的测试观测上，gen2:hermes.FLR_z3 把叠加 σ_R 从 5.15% 降到 3.81%（MOS1，配对差 −1.34 pp，自举展宽 [−1.98, −0.65]）、从 5.84% 降到 3.93%（MOS2，−1.92 [−2.58, −1.18]），保留 0.85–0.87 的活时间；FLR_z3、MS_z3.5_core、RT3_h2.5_l1 这 3 个政策在 4 个集 × 2 台相机共 8 种组合上都优于 2.filter（R9）。Headline: on the 25 test observations no designer saw, gen2:hermes.FLR_z3 takes the stacked σ_R from 5.15% to 3.81% (MOS1, paired difference −1.34 pp, bootstrap spread [−1.98, −0.65]) and from 5.84% to 3.93% (MOS2, −1.92 [−2.58, −1.18]) while keeping 0.85–0.87 of live time; these 3 policies (FLR_z3, MS_z3.5_core, RT3_h2.5_l1) beat 2.filter in all 8 set × camera cases (4 sets × 2 cameras; R9).
同日折入的诚实限定：① RT-16 F-01 —— 优势主要是修好 2.filter 失效的观测（M31 MOS1 去掉 2 个最差观测后 FLR_z3 只剩 −0.79 pp，MS_z3.5_core 变成 +0.33 pp 持平）；② RT-18 —— σ_RC 降级，只用 σ_R 排名并另报每个政策丢掉的观测数；③ E022 —— FLR_z3 的优势来自绝对硬度门 r0 = 1.8，同一个门在 Virgo-server 集上丢掉 51/142（MOS1，34% 时间）与 54/142（MOS2，38%）个观测，主候选正在被重新询问；④ RT-15 —— 竖直剖面读法取决于曝光模型（平坦曝光下 2.filter 在 2 台相机都排最后）；⑤ E021 —— R2 跨观测静息参考跑完，没有产生新领先者，但场参照门能拒绝 LH 0101；⑥ RT-17/R10 —— "复现 2.filter" 改为文件级。Honest limits folded in the same day: ① RT-16 F-01 — the advantage is mostly the repair of 2.filter's failed observations (on M31 MOS1, removing the 2 worst observations leaves FLR_z3 at only −0.79 pp and turns MS_z3.5_core into +0.33 pp, no significant difference); ② RT-18 — σ_RC is demoted, so ranking uses σ_R only with the dropped-observation count reported separately; ③ E022 — FLR_z3's edge comes from its absolute hardness gate r0 = 1.8, and the same gate drops 51/142 observations (MOS1, 34% of the time) and 54/142 (MOS2, 38%) on the Virgo-server set, so the main candidate is being re-asked; ④ RT-15 — the vertical-profile reading depends on the exposure model (under a flat exposure 2.filter is last on 2 cameras); ⑤ E021 — R2's cross-observation quiescent reference finished with no new leader, but a field-referenced gate does reject LH 0101; ⑥ RT-17/R10 — "reproducing 2.filter" is now file-level.
同时如实记录：竖直剖面的中位 τ_b 改善"未检出"（检验功效 1–2σ，RT-12 F-01）；池化的每观测水平偏移上 FLR_z3 在 MOS2 上 −2.0 pp（95% [−3.3, −0.7]）、Q_d0.05_n2 在 2 台相机都降，但该统计量是事后选择的，待 R7 预注册；Lockman Hole 的观测间项 14.6% / 23.3% 几乎全由 0022740101 一个观测贡献（RT-06，espfilt 锁到耀斑上）。Recorded honestly alongside: the median-τ_b profile improvement is "not detected" (the test has 1–2σ power, RT-12 F-01); on the pooled per-observation offset statistic FLR_z3 lowers MOS2 by −2.0 pp (95% [−3.3, −0.7]) and Q_d0.05_n2 lowers 2 cameras, but that statistic was chosen after the fact and awaits R7's pre-registration; the Lockman Hole between term, 14.6% / 23.3%, is carried almost entirely by the single observation 0022740101 (RT-06, espfilt locking onto a flare).

2026-10-14（第三次更新，D007–D012 刷新）:

2026-10-14 (third edition, the D007-D012 refresh):

PI 把下游成功判据定义为误差预算(C001,D007/D008):单观测看 σ_tot,多观测先看一致性；0.5–2 keV 拼接光变曲线的 s_sys = 17–25%（2.filter），对 s_stat 0.04–0.2% —— 系统误差约大 100 倍。The PI defined the downstream success criterion as the error budget (C001, D007/D008): σ_tot for a single observation, consistency first over a set; the 0.5–2 keV concatenated-light-curve s_sys is 17–25% (2.filter) against s_stat 0.04–0.2% — the systematic is about 100× larger.
历史的 M31 2.1.filter 在多个观测上灾难性失败（3 个 MOS2、5 个 MOS1 完全不切;另一些只留 0.1–2.9 ks），且其"1.6%"被撤回：它在 0.2–10 keV 上选择，包含 0.5–2 keV 打分带 —— 选择与打分同一批事件给出 0.0%。The historical M31 2.1.filter fails catastrophically on several observations (no cut at all on 3 MOS2 and 5 MOS1; 0.1–2.9 ks left on others), and its "1.6%" is withdrawn: it selects on 0.2–10 keV, which contains the 0.5–2 keV score band — selecting and scoring on the same events gives 0.0%.
C1（D010）：每个观测一个角落项把观测间部分从 ~12% 降到 3–4%（CDFS）;剩下的主导项是 2.filter 留下的 ~12% 观测内变化。C1 (D010): a per-observation corner term takes the between part from ~12% to 3–4% (CDFS); the dominant remainder is the ~12% within-observation variability left by 2.filter.
C1b（D011）：2.filter 内的不相交能段（FOV 2.5–8 keV）裁剪（B = 300 s,n = 1）把观测内项从 11.6–12.7% 减到 4.7–6.0%（100 s），代价 20–26% 活时间；≥ 1000 s 时 0–2.6%，达到 ~2% 目标。CDFS 角落修正后 s_sys:12.5% → 6.1%（MOS2）、12.0% → 5.2%（MOS1）。C1b (D011): a disjoint-band (FOV 2.5–8 keV) clip inside 2.filter (B = 300 s, n = 1) cuts the within term from 11.6–12.7% to 4.7–6.0% (100 s) for 20–26% of live time; at ≥ 1000 s it is 0–2.6%, meeting the ~2% target. CDFS corner-corrected s_sys: 12.5% → 6.1% (MOS2), 12.0% → 5.2% (MOS1).
P002 批准、冻结（1eb687b）并跑完 F1（D009）：CDFS MOS2 b = 1.015 ± 0.030 → TRACKS;其余三集 b ≈ 0.6–0.7 → INTERMEDIATE。"Al 线是粒子监测器"未在一般意义上确立。F3 指向线测量里的 K/B 系统误差（T005）。P002 was approved, frozen (1eb687b) and F1 run (D009): CDFS MOS2 b = 1.015 ± 0.030 → TRACKS; the other three sets give b ≈ 0.6–0.7 → INTERMEDIATE. "The Al line is a particle monitor" is not established in general. F3 points to a K/B systematic in the line measurement (T005).
100 s cell 上约 5% 的快速"白"残差是新的未解问题：裁剪后仍在、不跟随角落（观测内角落回归只移走 ≤ 0.7 点）、会从谱中平均掉；其来源未测（事件聚簇 Fano ≈ 1.17,或阈值下的快速软质子闪烁）。The ~5% fast "white" residual at 100 s cells is a new open question: it survives the clip, does not follow the corner (a within-observation corner regression removes ≤ 0.7 points), and averages out of spectra; its origin is untested (event clustering, Fano ≈ 1.17, or fast soft-proton flicker below the clip).
下一步（PI,D011/D012）:冻结已完成（H,B = 300 s,n = 1;cell 尺寸 1000 s;commit abc5e602），下一次是一次 Lockman Hole 还原，同时检验 P002 F2 与冻结滤波器；C2 在 P002 之后。Lockman Hole"后面再派"，不预设日期。Next (PI, D011/D012): the freeze is done (H, B = 300 s, n = 1; cell size 1000 s; commit abc5e602); the next step is one Lockman Hole reduction testing both P002 F2 and the frozen filter; C2 after P002. The Lockman Hole is dispatched later; no date invented.
新页面："误差预算与 Al 线"(budget.html),从零讲 C001 与 P002,含撤回的 1.6% 一节；两张新图:P002 F1 四集散点、C1b cell 尺寸依赖。New page: "Error budget and the Al line" (budget.html), teaching C001 and P002 from zero, including the withdrawn 1.6% claim; two new figures: the P002 F1 four-set scatter and the C1b cell-size dependence.

2026-10-13（第二次更新，D006 刷新）:P001 关闭，主问题否定;CDFS 盲测完成（E003）;角落按数据集回答;探索性角落–Al 张力（后由 P002 接手）。

2026-10-13 (second edition, the D006 refresh): P001 closed negative; the CDFS blind run complete (E003); the corner answered per set; the exploratory corner-vs-Al tension (later taken over by P002).

2026-10-13(第一版）:本手册随 ParetoGTICal 迁移入 DXC 后建立，覆盖 D001–D005。

2026-10-13 (first edition): this handbook was built after ParetoGTICal migrated into DXC, covering D001–D005.

数据截至Data as of

2026-10-14（所读最新来源：cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D012（2026-10-14）与 00_AI_BRIEFING.md §Next steps,以及 E005_c001_c1b_inobs_filter.md、E006_c001_cell_size.md、P002 §9、E004 与收据 results/p002/、results/c001_concat/、results/c001_c1b/、results/c001_cellsize/）。

2026-10-14 (newest sources read: cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D012 (2026-10-14) and 00_AI_BRIEFING.md §Next steps, plus E005_c001_c1b_inobs_filter.md, E006_c001_cell_size.md, P002 §9, E004 and the receipts results/p002/, results/c001_concat/, results/c001_c1b/, results/c001_cellsize/).