ParetoGTICal 工作台ParetoGTICal workbench
更正二（2026-10-17，Claude）：P002-F1 中“CDFS MOS2 跟踪角落，\(b=1.015\pm0.030\)（TRACKS）”已于 2026-10-15 由 E004 更正撤回：这是观测时期（epoch）造成的假象，加入每个时期的偏移后 \(b=0.690\pm0.020\)，与其他样本一样属“中间”。本页中出现 1.015 或 TRACKS 的地方请按此读。
Correction 2 (2026-10-17, Claude): the P002-F1 result “CDFS MOS2 tracks the corner, \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) (TRACKS)” was withdrawn on 2026-10-15 by the E004 correction: it is an epoch artefact; with a per-epoch offset \(b=0.690\pm0.020\), INTERMEDIATE like every other set. Read every 1.015 / TRACKS on this page accordingly.
评审更正（2026-10-16 23:40Z，Claude）：本站数学已全部改为 LaTeX，但内容截至当天下午，之后的红队评审改变了几处结论：（1）\(\sigma_R\) 只含观测内的拼接风险，没有观测间水平项，剔除观测几乎不增加 \(\sigma_R\)；\(\sigma_{tot}\) 可被子集选择操纵，只作描述。（2）M31 剖面“MOS2 改善”已降为存疑；\(D\) 的逐策略符号已撤回。（3）交付物是 Pareto 策略族（非支配集，覆盖代价 \(\lambda\) 可调），按 \(\varepsilon\) 聚类、用两种时间度量、标出依赖 2.filter 的成员；RT3 的“从不被支配”取决于候选池。（4）下游可用性只在 CDFS 0108060401 上结构性验证：产品名 146/146 一致，但行数不同、EXPOSU 的 LIVETIME 未变。以 cognition-os 为准；本页待作者刷新。
Reviewer correction (2026-10-16 23:40Z, Claude): the maths is now all LaTeX, but the content dates from the afternoon and later red-team reviews changed several conclusions: (1) \(\sigma_R\) is within-observation mosaic risk only, with no between-observation level term, so dropping observations is almost free; \(\sigma_{tot}\) can be gamed by subset selection and is descriptive only. (2) The M31 profile claim “MOS2 improves” is downgraded to questioned; per-policy signs of D are withdrawn. (3) The deliverable is a Pareto policy family (non-dominated set, tunable coverage price \(\lambda\)), reported as eps-clusters with two time measures and with 2.filter-derived members marked; RT3’s “never dominated” depends on the candidate pool. (4) Downstream usability is verified structurally on CDFS 0108060401 only: 146/146 product names identical, but row counts differ and the EXPOSU LIVETIME headers are unchanged. The cognition-os records rule; this page awaits the writer’s refresh.
组会 · 2026-10-20（最新一天，完整）Group meeting · 2026-10-20 (latest day, in full)
成果 / ResultsResults
- PI 两次定调：结果是一个帕累托族，不是赢家（D096/D097）：在每个明确的数据集测试（集 \(\times\) 相机，或声明的池化集）里，只要没有别的策略在所有轴上至少与它持平、且在某一轴上严格更好，这个策略就保留 —— 没有单一赢家，也没有对参照的通过/失败。轴集合开放：观测间一致性、单观测 \(R=C_{\mathrm{all}}/C_K\) 散布（\(\sigma_R\)）、保留时间（绝对与比例）、观测覆盖率等。旧的"Confirmed vs 参照"规则降为 \(\sigma_R\) 轴的描述性读数。信任状态：accepted（PI 决定；家族数字 provisional）。The PI set the headline twice: the result is a Pareto family, not a winner (D096/D097): within each explicit dataset test (set \(\times\) camera cell, or a stated pooled set) a policy is kept when no other policy is at least as good on every axis and strictly better on one — no single winner, no pass/fail against a reference. The axis set is open: between-observation consistency, per-observation \(R=C_{\mathrm{all}}/C_K\) scatter (\(\sigma_R\)), kept time (absolute and fraction), observation coverage, and others. The old "Confirmed vs reference" rule becomes a descriptive \(\sigma_R\)-axis view. Trust state: accepted (PI decisions; the family numbers are Provisional).
- R55 多轴家族（20 个数据集测试 \(\times\) 103 个策略，80/80 前沿复算一致）：精确支配下 2.filter 在 19/20 个测试里是家族成员，E_k2.5 20/20，none 20/20（结构性）；D086 的 5 个 \(\sigma_R\) 领先者 8-17/20，主要靠保留时间/覆盖率轴，在（between, T）两轴上只剩 0-1/20。信任状态：provisional（发展 + 已用保留集）。The R55 multi-axis family (20 dataset tests \(\times\) 103 policies, 80/80 fronts re-checked identically): under exact dominance 2.filter is a family member in 19 of 20 tests, E_k2.5 20/20, none 20/20 (structurally); the 5 D086 \(\sigma_R\) leaders are members in 8-17 of 20, mostly through the kept-time/coverage axes, falling to 0-1/20 on (between, T) alone. Trust state: Provisional (development + spent held-out data).
- PI 定 P007 数据集为变体 C（54 观测）并批准同天区谱形状验证（D100/D103）；R57 草稿成稿、R60 干跑发现现有缓存不可直接用（负可行性）、R61 光子拆分缓存 146/146 精确还原 —— R57 未冻结（还缺非零 \(\tau\) 区间、逐观测 QPB 色偏与 SWCX 旗标）。The PI fixed the P007 data set as variant C (54 observations) and approved the same-sky spectral-shape validation (D100/D103); the R57 draft is written, the R60 dry run found the existing caches unusable as they stand (a negative feasibility result), and the R61 photon-split caches reproduce the originals exactly on 146/146 observation-cameras — R57 is not frozen (non-zero-\(\tau\) intervals, per-observation QPB colour offsets and the SWCX flag still missing).
工作 / WorkWork
- 研究步骤 R49–R61 全部完成（免费执行者与 Claude 自算，关键数字全部复算一致）；红队 RT-96 至 RT-104 共 9 个全部三审；专家研究 1 次、文献检索 S-P01 至 S-P11；本手册刷新（H009）派发。Research steps R49-R61 all finished (free executors plus Claude's own runs, every key number re-checked identically); 9 red teams RT-96 to RT-104 all triaged; 1 expert-research pass and literature searches S-P01 to S-P11; this handbook refresh (H009) dispatched.
问题 / ProblemsProblems
- RT-101：观测间轴可以被"丢观测"操纵（MOS_g3 只留 2/11 个观测时 between 项降到 0）—— 每个成员现在随覆盖数打印并标注"可能来自丢弃观测"，防丢弃轴是 R58。RT-103：R56 硬度轴重新编码了选择（\(r=0.82\text{–}0.84\)），保持描述性。RT-99：QFG 的"领先者"称呼撤回，z 网格进家族（R59）。D085 撤回"功效区间"措辞：发展替身与已用数据是两个情景，不是上下界。RT-101: the between-observation axis can be gamed by dropping observations (MOS_g3 keeps 2/11, its between term falls to 0) — every member is now printed with its coverage counts and labelled "may come from dropping"; a drop-proof axis is R58. RT-103: the R56 hardness axis re-encodes the selection (\(r=0.82\text{–}0.84\)) and stays descriptive. RT-99: the "leader" label for QFG is withdrawn; its z-grid enters the family (R59). D085 withdrew the "power bracket" wording: development stand-ins and spent data are two scenarios, not bounds.
待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI
- 无（变体 C 已定 D103；同天区验证已批 D100；保留时间作判据而非门槛已定 D091/D096）。None (variant C settled by D103; the same-sky validation approved by D100; kept time as a criterion, not a gate, settled by D091/D096).
来源：cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D084–D105；06_AGENT_LOG.md；REDTEAM_QUEUE.md RT-96–RT-104；更早的组会块见组会页。Source: cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D084-D105; 06_AGENT_LOG.md; REDTEAM_QUEUE.md RT-96-RT-104; earlier days on the meetings page.
更早的组会日（2026-10-19：P006 读数三次收窄与 P007 规则草稿；2026-10-18：P006 冻结与判决；2026-10-17：家族成员频率与保留集普查）—— 组会页。
Earlier meeting days (2026-10-19: the held-out reading narrowed three times and the P007 rule draft; 2026-10-18: the P006 freeze and verdict; 2026-10-17: family membership and the held-out census) — meetings page.
组会Meeting ·
四个问题Four questions ·
目标表Objectives ·
开放问题表Open problems ·
计划Plan ·
骨架图Skeleton ·
动画Animation ·
本次更新What's new ·
前沿策略对比Frontier policies ·
数据截至Data as of
这是什么项目? XMM-Newton 望远镜每次观测都会被软质子 (soft proton) 耀斑污染，必须用"好时间段 (good time interval, GTI)"把耀斑时间删掉。删多删少是一对矛盾：多删 → 剩下的数据更干净但更少；少删 → 数据多但更脏。ParetoGTICal 把这个取舍当作一个帕累托问题 (Pareto problem):在单次观测内部，用保留活时间 \(f_T\) 与连续谱约减因子 \(R\) 两个坐标给每个候选 GTI 打分，并用 Al-K、Si-K 荧光线的不变性做门 (gate),防止"挑噪声"伪装成"删耀斑"。
\[ f_T=\frac{T_K}{T_{\mathrm{all}}},\qquad R=\frac{C_{\mathrm{all}}}{C_K} \]
其中 \(T_K\) 是候选 GTI 保留的活时间，\(T_{\mathrm{all}}\) 是全部活时间；\(C_{\mathrm{all}}\) 是全时段连续谱计数率，\(C_K\) 是保留时间 \(K\) 上的同一量。\(R>1\) 说明删掉的时间确实更亮。它属于父项目 DiffuseXrayCalibration （校准 XMM EPIC 弥散发射分析），但有自己的问题、自己的认知操作系统 (cognition OS) 和自己的预注册 (pre-registration) 纪律。
What is this project? Every XMM-Newton observation is polluted by soft-proton flares, and "bad" time must be removed by keeping only good time intervals (GTIs). How much to cut is a genuine conflict: cut more and the retained data are cleaner but fewer; cut less and there are more data but dirtier ones. ParetoGTICal treats this trade-off as a Pareto problem: within one observation, every candidate GTI is scored by two coordinates — the retained live time \(f_T\) and the continuum reduction factor \(R\) — with an Al-K / Si-K fluorescence-line stability gate that stops "selecting noise" from masquerading as "cutting flares".
\[ f_T=\frac{T_K}{T_{\mathrm{all}}},\qquad R=\frac{C_{\mathrm{all}}}{C_K} \]
where \(T_K\) is the live time the candidate GTI keeps and \(T_{\mathrm{all}}\) the total live time; \(C_{\mathrm{all}}\) is the all-time continuum rate and \(C_K\) the same quantity over the retained time \(K\). \(R>1\) means the discarded time really was brighter. It is a sub-project of DiffuseXrayCalibration (calibrating the XMM EPIC diffuse-emission analysis), with its own question, its own cognition OS and its own pre-registration discipline.
2026-10-20 更新：组会档案（每日一块，成果 / 工作 / 问题 / 待 PI 决定）、论文草稿（ApJ 结构）与 报告幻灯片加完整讲稿。现在读哪里：想知道今天发生了什么 → 本页顶部的组会块；想知道项目整体在哪 → 现状页；想接手做下去 → 如何接手；十个政策的光变曲线、帕累托前沿与 M31 竖直剖面 → 前沿策略对比（2026-10-16）与 MS 策略专页。Updated 2026-10-20: the group-meeting archive (one block per day: Results / Work / Problems / For the PI), the paper draft (ApJ structure) and the seminar slides with the full talk script. Where to read: what happened today → the meeting block at the top of this page; where the project stands → the state page; how to continue → By hand; the ten policies' light curves, Pareto fronts and M31 vertical profile → Frontier policies (2026-10-16) and the MS policy page.
四个问题，一屏作答Four questions, answered on one screen
- 现在在哪？
- Where does it stand?
- P001 已关闭（D006），答案否定：等保留率下率排名在任何主集上都不优于 2.filter。此后项目转向误差预算判据（C001）：多观测时一致性比信噪比重要。2026-10-18 跑完了第一次保留集判决：在 119 个从未参与开发的观测上，83 个冻结候选中 79 个相对归档 2.filter 是 Confirmed —— 但 2.filter 是弱参照，对复现的标准光变曲线滤波器只剩 11/83，且都靠更短的保留时间。2026-10-20 PI 定调：交付物是"每个数据集测试的帕累托族"（D096/D097）—— 没有单一赢家，没有对参照的通过/失败；一个策略只要没被别的策略在所有轴上完全超过就保留。轴包括观测间一致性、单观测 \(\sigma_R\)、保留时间、观测覆盖率。R55 已跑：20 个测试 \(\times\) 103 个策略，2.filter 在 19/20 个测试是家族成员。下一个测试（P007）用变体 C 的 54 个观测，冻结前还差 R58 防丢弃轴与 R57 同天区谱验证。
- P001 is closed (D006), negative: at equal retention rate-rank does not beat 2.filter on any primary set. The project then turned to the error-budget criterion (C001): over several observations, consistency matters more than S/N. On 2026-10-18 the first held-out verdict ran: on 119 observations that took no part in development, 79 of 83 frozen candidates are Confirmed relative to the archived 2.filter — but 2.filter is a weak reference, so against the reproduced standard light-curve filter only 11 of 83 survive, and all of them by keeping less time. On 2026-10-20 the PI set the headline: the deliverable is "the Pareto family per dataset test" (D096/D097) — no single winner, no pass/fail against a reference; a policy is kept when no other policy beats it on every axis at once. The axes include between-observation consistency, per-observation \(\sigma_R\), kept time and observation coverage. R55 has run: 20 tests \(\times\) 103 policies, 2.filter a family member in 19/20. The next test (P007) uses the 54 observations of variant C; before the freeze it still needs the R58 drop-proof axis and the R57 same-sky spectral validation.
- 还有什么没解决？
- What is unsolved?
- ① 家族的观测间一致性轴可被"丢观测"操纵（RT-101：MOS_g3 只留 2/11 个观测，between 项归零即入族）—— R58 防丢弃轴进行中。② 同天区谱形状验证（R57）未冻结：还缺非零 \(\tau\) 区间、逐观测 QPB 色偏与 SWCX 旗标；R60 干跑已证明旧缓存不可用，R61 光子拆分缓存就绪。③ 颜色/形状轴不能重新编码 GTI 选择（RT-103：硬度散布与保留率 \(r=0.82\text{–}0.84\)）—— R63 用拆分后的独立半区。④ 候选是否真的优于一个复现的标准光变曲线滤波器：作为 \(\sigma_R\) 轴读数仍未确立（对单个参照 11/83，等保留时间 0–1/83），但它已不是最终判据。⑤ Al-K 线门几乎从未触发（每格 0–3 个观测）；谱验证（C2）还没做；P002 F1 复制失败的原因未测。
- ① The family's between-observation axis can be gamed by dropping observations (RT-101: MOS_g3 keeps 2/11, its between term falls to zero and it enters the family) — the R58 drop-proof axis is running. ② The same-sky spectral-shape validation (R57) is not frozen: non-zero-\(\tau\) intervals, per-observation QPB colour offsets and the SWCX flag are missing; the R60 dry run proved the old caches unusable and the R61 photon-split caches are ready. ③ The colour/shape axes must not re-encode the GTI selection (RT-103: hardness scatter vs retained rate \(r=0.82\text{–}0.84\)) — R63 uses the independent halves after the split. ④ Whether the candidates really beat a reproduced standard light-curve filter: as a \(\sigma_R\)-axis reading it is still not established (11/83 against the single reference, 0-1 of 83 at matched kept time), but it is no longer the final verdict. ⑤ The Al-K line gate almost never fires (0-3 observations per cell); spectral validation (C2) is still to come; the causes of the P002 F1 replication failure are untested.
- 接下来做什么？
- What do I do next?
- 按记录：(a) P007 冻结与运行（主线）—— 数据集已定变体 C（54 观测，D103）；冻结前补齐 R58 防丢弃轴与 R63 颜色轴、冻结 R57（还缺非零 \(\tau\) 区间、\(d_i\) 与 SWCX 旗标），判决形式 = 每个数据集测试的家族 + 自举成员频率。(b) R58（防丢弃观测间轴）与 R63（颜色轴进家族）进行中。(c) 谱验证 C2 与 P002 F2 等 PI 派发。步骤格式见"如何接手"页 §5。
- Per the records: (a) freeze and run P007 (the main line) — the data set is variant C (54 observations, D103); before the freeze, complete the R58 drop-proof and R63 colour axes and freeze R57 (still missing non-zero-\(\tau\) intervals, \(d_i\) and the SWCX flag); the verdict takes the form "the family per dataset test + bootstrap membership frequency". (b) R58 (the drop-proof between axis) and R63 (the colour axes into the family) are running. (c) Spectral validation C2 and P002 F2 await the PI's dispatch. Step formats on the "By hand" page §5.
目标表（PI 工作单，D002,2026-10-13）Objectives (the PI's work order, D002, 2026-10-13)
| # | 目标Objective | 状态Status | 最好的当前数字（来源）Best current number (source) | 趋势Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 事实纠错认知 OSFact-correct the cognition OS | DONE | D002 + I002：训练/保留集（19 训练、11 保留）2026-09-14 已冻结且已消费；两个度量族 R 与 G_Al；数据是 M31 MOS2 不是 CDFS。D002 + I002: the train/holdout split (19 training, 11 holdout) was frozen and scored on 2026-09-14; two metric families R and G_Al exist; the data are M31 MOS2, not CDFS.
来源：Source: ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md (D002); insights/I002_historical_evidence_reconciliation.md |
→ |
| 2 | 扩展到 MOS1 + 空白场对照Extend to MOS1 + blank-field control | DONE | M31 MOS1 盲测（E002）与 CDFS 空白场盲测（E003,34/34 ObsID \(\times\) 2 相机）均完成。E3 在所有主集上失败；CDFS 的增益方向一致但只有约 0.3%（描述性）。角落：CDFS 可用，M31 MOS1 太吵。Both halves done: the blind M31 MOS1 run (E002) and the CDFS blank-field blind run (E003, 34/34 ObsIDs \(\times\) 2 cameras). E3 fails on every primary set; the CDFS gain is consistent in sign but only about 0.3% (descriptive). Corner: usable on CDFS, too noisy on M31 MOS1. | → |
| 3 | 定义下游成功判据Define the downstream success criterion | 已定义（C001）；P006 保留集判决已跑；PI 改判：交付物是每个数据集测试的帕累托族（D096/D097），不是对参照的通过/失败DEFINED (C001); the P006 held-out verdict has run; the PI has re-framed the deliverable as the Pareto family per dataset test (D096/D097), not a pass/fail vs a reference | 判据 = 误差预算（D007/D008）：单观测 \(\sigma_{\mathrm{tot}}=\sigma_{\mathrm{stat}}\oplus\varepsilon\cdot C_K\)；多观测先看一致性（拼接光变曲线的 \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}\)，不随观测数下降）。实测（2.filter,0.5–2 keV）：\(s_{\mathrm{sys}}=17\text{–}25\%\)（观测内 11–13%、观测间 12–22%），而 \(s_{\mathrm{stat}}\) 只有 0.04–0.2% —— 系统误差约是统计误差的 \(100\) 倍。打分 cell 尺寸 1000 s（D012）。注意（D019）：\(\sigma_R\) 只是观测内的拼接风险，没有观测间水平项，剔除观测几乎不增加它；\(\sigma_{\mathrm{tot}}\) 可被子集选择操纵，只作描述。P006 判决（E024,D068）：83 个候选中 79 个相对归档 2.filter Confirmed，中位 \(\delta\) 为 HO-M31 MOS1 \(-10.1\) pp、MOS2 \(-3.7\)；HO-blank MOS1 \(-3.2\)；HO-mixed \(-2.9\) / \(-3.5\) pp。P007 规则草稿（D075/D077）：主估计量 = 六格等权平均 \(\bar D\) 对复现滤波器 EH_B1000_n2，\(\delta_0=0.5\) pp，带伤害守卫；规模 \(\leq 3\%\)，功效只报区间。PI 改判（D096/D097）：结果 = 每个明确数据集测试的帕累托族（无任何策略在所有轴上至少持平且在一轴上严格更好者保留；无单一赢家；旧 Confirmed 规则降为 \(\sigma_R\) 轴描述）。R55 家族（D101）：20 个测试 \(\times\) 103 个策略，2.filter 在 19/20 个测试是成员，D086 五领导 8-17/20（靠保留时间/覆盖率）。The criterion is the error budget (D007/D008): for a single observation \(\sigma_{\mathrm{tot}}=\sigma_{\mathrm{stat}}\oplus\varepsilon\cdot C_K\); over a set, consistency comes first (the concatenated-light-curve \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}\), which does not fall with the number of observations). Measured (2.filter, 0.5–2 keV): \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}=17\text{–}25\%\) (within 11–13%, between 12–22%) against \(s_{\mathrm{stat}}\) of only 0.04–0.2% — the systematic is about \(100\times\) the statistical. Scoring cell size 1000 s (D012). Note (D019): \(\sigma_R\) is the within-observation mosaic risk only, with no between-observation level term, so dropping observations is almost free; \(\sigma_{\mathrm{tot}}\) can be gamed by subset selection and is descriptive only. P006 verdict (E024, D068): 79 of 83 candidates Confirmed vs the archived 2.filter, median \(\delta\) HO-M31 MOS1 \(-10.1\) pp, MOS2 \(-3.7\); HO-blank MOS1 \(-3.2\); HO-mixed \(-2.9\) / \(-3.5\) pp. P007 rule draft (D075/D077): primary estimand = the equal-weight mean \(\bar D\) over six cells vs the reproduced filter EH_B1000_n2, \(\delta_0=0.5\) pp, with a harm guard; size \(\leq 3\%\), power quoted only as a range. PI re-frame (D096/D097): the result is the Pareto family per explicit dataset test (a policy is kept when no other is at least as good on every axis and strictly better on one; no single winner; the old Confirmed rule becomes a descriptive \(\sigma_R\)-axis view). The R55 family (D101): 20 tests \(\times\) 103 policies, 2.filter a member in 19/20 tests, the D086 five leaders 8-17/20 (through kept time/coverage). | ↗ |
| 5 | Al 线是否跟随角落粒子水平？(P002)Does the Al line track the corner particle level? (P002) | F1 已跑；TRACKS 读数已撤回，未在一般意义上确立F1 run; the TRACKS reading is withdrawn; not established in general | F1 斜率 \(b\)（\(\ln L_{\mathrm{Al}}\) 对 \(\ln Q\)，观测之间）。原读数"CDFS MOS2 \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) → TRACKS"已于 2026-10-15 撤回（红队检查 RT-02，E004 更正）：这是观测时期（epoch）造成的假象；冻结代码加每时期偏移后 \(b=0.690\pm0.020\)，与其他三集（CDFS MOS1 \(0.588\pm0.020\)、M31 MOS2 \(0.602\pm0.070\)、M31 MOS1 \(0.694\pm0.050\)）一样属"中间"，即约 \(0.6\text{–}0.7\)。按 §6，"Al 线是粒子监测器"未在一般意义上确立；F2（观测之内）等 Lockman Hole。F3：线在观测之间部分跟随 \(Q\)、观测之内不跟随 —— 指向线测量里的 K/B 系统误差（T005 处置）。The F1 slope \(b\) (\(\ln L_{\mathrm{Al}}\) on \(\ln Q\), between observations). The original reading "CDFS MOS2 \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) → TRACKS" was withdrawn on 2026-10-15 (red-team check RT-02, E004 correction): it is an epoch artefact; the frozen code with per-epoch offsets gives \(b=0.690\pm0.020\), INTERMEDIATE like the other three sets (CDFS MOS1 \(0.588\pm0.020\), M31 MOS2 \(0.602\pm0.070\), M31 MOS1 \(0.694\pm0.050\)), i.e. about \(0.6\text{–}0.7\). Per §6, "the Al line is a particle monitor" is not established in general; F2 (within observations) waits for the Lockman Hole. F3: the line partly follows \(Q\) between observations but not within them — pointing to a K/B systematic in the line measurement (the T005 disposition). | → |
| 4 | 开放问题：未曝光角落有没有用？Open question: is the unexposed corner useful? | 已按数据集回答（D006）ANSWERED per set (D006) | 精度（叠加 \(\sigma\)）：CDFS MOS1 = 0.0044、MOS2 = 0.0038 → USABLE;M31 MOS2 参考 = 0.0098 → 勉强可用；M31 MOS1 = 0.0133 → TOO_NOISY。它还在 CDFS 上看到了真实的 K/B 粒子级差：被删时间的角落 2.5–8 keV 率高 1.9%（MOS1,\(-4.3\sigma\)）与 3.9%（MOS2,\(-10\sigma\)）。新的开放子问题（未经预注册）：角落的粒子水平变化不带入门内 Al 线比。Precision (stacked \(\sigma\)): CDFS MOS1 = 0.0044, MOS2 = 0.0038 → USABLE; M31 MOS2 reference = 0.0098 → usable by a hair; M31 MOS1 = 0.0133 → TOO_NOISY. It also sees a real K/B particle-level difference on CDFS: rejected time has a 1.9% (MOS1, \(-4.3\sigma\)) and 3.9% (MOS2, \(-10\sigma\)) higher corner 2.5–8 keV rate. New open sub-question (not pre-registered): the corner's particle-level change does not carry into the as-gated Al-line ratio. | → |
| 6 | 按数据集测试评价 GTI 策略族（P007）Evaluate the GTI policy family per dataset test (P007) | 家族代码已跑（R55/R59）；P007 未冻结：变体 C 已定，同天区谱形状验证（R57）未冻结The family code has run (R55/R59); P007 is not frozen: variant C is settled, the same-sky spectral-shape validation (R57) is not | 家族 = 每个明确数据集测试（集 \(\times\) 相机或声明的池化集）里未被支配的策略全体（D096/D097）。已跑：R55 多轴家族（20 测试 \(\times\) 103 策略，2.filter 19/20 成员、E_k2.5 20/20、none 20/20、D086 五领导 8-17/20）；R59 QFG z 网格进家族；RT-101/RT-103 抓出观测间轴可被"丢观测"操纵、硬度轴重新编码选择 —— 成员随覆盖数打印、轴保持描述性。下一步：R58 防丢弃轴、R63 颜色轴、R57 冻结后 P007 冻结（变体 C，54 观测）。The family = every policy not dominated within each explicit dataset test (set \(\times\) camera cell, or a stated pooled set; D096/D097). Run so far: the R55 multi-axis family (20 tests \(\times\) 103 policies, 2.filter a member in 19/20, E_k2.5 20/20, none 20/20, the D086 five leaders 8-17/20); the R59 QFG z-grid in the family; RT-101/RT-103 caught the between axis being gameable by dropping observations and the hardness axis re-encoding the selection — members are printed with coverage counts and those axes stay descriptive. Next: the R58 drop-proof axis, the R63 colour axes, then the P007 freeze (variant C, 54 observations) once R57 is frozen. | ↗ |
开放问题表Open problems
| 问题Problem | 为什么重要Why it matters | 当前最好的假设Best current hypothesis | 下一个检验Next test | 所有者 / 状态Owner / status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 观测间一致性轴如何防"丢观测"操纵？How can the between-observation consistency axis be made drop-proof? | 家族判据刚把"观测间一致性"立为轴（D097），但红队检查 RT-101 证明它可被操纵：MOS_g3 只保留 2/11 个观测时 between 项降到 0，从而"入族"。若不修复，家族会奖励丢弃观测的策略。The family criterion just made between-observation consistency an axis (D097), but the red-team check RT-101 proved it gameable: MOS_g3 keeps 2/11 observations, its between term falls to 0 and it enters the family. Unfixed, the family would reward policies that drop observations. | 每个成员随覆盖数/保留数打印并标注"可能来自丢弃观测"（D101 已采用）；真正的修复是 R58 的防丢弃 between 轴（进行中）。Every member is printed with its coverage/kept counts and labelled "may come from dropping" (adopted in D101); the real fix is the R58 drop-proof between axis (running). | R58 完成后，把新旧 between 轴下的家族并列打印，若成员数差异大，采纳防丢弃形式并记录理由。When R58 finishes, print the family under the old and new between axes side by side; if membership differs materially, adopt the drop-proof form and record why. | D101 / 进行中（R58）RUNNING (R58)D101 / RUNNING (R58) |
| 同天区谱形状验证（R57）如何冻结？How does the same-sky spectral-shape validation (R57) get frozen? | 家族判据的"颜色/形状轴"必须来自真实能谱，且不能重新编码 GTI 选择本身（RT-103：硬度散布与保留的 2.5–8 keV 率相关 \(r=0.82\text{–}0.84\)）。R57 是 PI 批准的预注册验证（D100），是 P007 冻结的前置条件。The colour/shape axis of the family criterion must come from real spectra and must not re-encode the GTI selection itself (RT-103: hardness scatter correlates with the retained 2.5-8 keV rate at \(r=0.82\text{–}0.84\)). R57 is the PI-approved pre-registered validation (D100) and blocks the P007 freeze. | R57 草稿已写（37 个同天区集、285 ObsID、H/S 与 U/S 两条颜色带、光子级 50/50 拆分）；R60 干跑发现旧缓存不可用，R61 已重建光子拆分缓存（146/146 精确还原，\(\tau=0\) 区间覆盖 92.5-100%）。The R57 draft is written (37 same-sky sets, 285 ObsIDs, the H/S and U/S colour bands, a photon-level 50/50 split); the R60 dry run found the old caches unusable, and R61 rebuilt the photon-split caches (146/146 exact, \(\tau=0\) interval coverage 92.5-100%). | 补齐三件后冻结：非零 \(\tau\) 区间、逐观测 QPB 色偏 \(d_i\)（S-P06 已给出公式）与 SWCX 旗标（S-P08 已给规则）；然后 RT-104 复查后进 P007 冻结包。Freeze after three missing pieces: non-zero-\(\tau\) intervals, per-observation QPB colour offsets \(d_i\) (S-P06 gives the formula) and the SWCX flag (S-P08 gives the rule); then RT-104 re-checks and it joins the P007 freeze package. | D104/D105 / 未冻结NOT FROZEND104/D105 / NOT FROZEN |
| 候选政策真的优于一个复现的标准光变曲线滤波器吗？（保留集判决的三次收窄）Do the candidates really beat a reproduced standard light-curve filter? (the held-out verdict narrowed three times) | 这是"我们的方法是否真的更好"的最终判据：对归档 2.filter 的 79/83 不能当成对一个标准滤波器的胜利，因为 2.filter 是弱参照。This is the final test of "is our method really better": 79/83 against the archived 2.filter cannot be read as a win over a standard filter, because 2.filter is a weak reference. | 对单个复现滤波器 EH_B1000_n2 只有 11/83（6 个家族），且全部保留更少时间（0.32–0.76 对 0.81–0.93）；对"等保留时间的最好复现滤波器"配对自举 0–1/83（点估计 37/83，对种子脆弱）。PI 改判后此问并入家族读数（D096/D097）：R55 家族里 D086 五领导靠保留时间/覆盖率轴在 8-17/20 个测试入族，在（between, T）两轴上 0-1/20 —— "未确立"作为 \(\sigma_R\) 轴的描述仍然成立，但它不再是最终判据。Against the single reproduced filter EH_B1000_n2 only 11 of 83 (6 families), all keeping less time (0.32-0.76 vs 0.81-0.93); against the best reproduced-filter setting at matched kept time a paired bootstrap gives 0-1 of 83 (point estimate 37/83, seed-fragile). After the PI's re-frame this question folds into the family reading (D096/D097): in the R55 family the D086 five leaders are members in 8-17 of 20 tests through the kept-time/coverage axes and 0-1/20 on (between, T) — "not established" still holds as the \(\sigma_R\)-axis description, but it is no longer the final verdict. | P007（变体 C 已定，D103）：冻结前还差 R58 防丢弃轴、R63 颜色轴与 R57 同天区谱形状验证（R61 光子拆分缓存已就绪，146/146 精确还原）；判决形式 = 每个数据集测试的家族 + 自举成员频率（D096/D097）。P007 (variant C settled, D103): before the freeze it still needs the R58 drop-proof axis, the R63 colour axes and the R57 same-sky spectral-shape validation (the R61 photon-split caches are ready, 146/146 exact); the verdict takes the form "the family per dataset test + bootstrap membership frequency" (D096/D097). | T046 / provisional（未确立，三次收窄后）Provisional (not established, after three narrowings)T046 / Provisional (not established, after three narrowings) |
| Al-K 线门在保留集上几乎不触发 —— 它到底有没有用？The Al-K line gate almost never fires on held-out data — does it work at all? | 线门是防止"挑噪声伪装成删耀斑"的核心保险；如果它在真实数据上从不触发，就既不能证明有用，也不能证明无用。The line gate is the core insurance against "selecting noise masquerading as cutting flares"; if it never fires on real data it can be shown neither useful nor useless. | 保留集判决里它每个"格"只在 0–3 个观测上触发；两个线门候选（LG.FLRr、XJLG.FLRr）的确认实际检验的是它们的基底政策，不是门本身。In the held-out verdict it fires on 0–3 observations per cell; the two line-gate candidates (LG.FLRr, XJLG.FLRr) are confirmed on their base policies, not on the gate. | P007 规则里写明：只有当可门控观测数达到预设值才给线门判决，否则报告"检验的是基底政策"；并打印每格的可门控数（集 A 预期 10.1 / 7.3 / 8.4）。The P007 rule states: a line-gate verdict only when the gateable count reaches the pre-set value, otherwise "tests its base policy"; the gateable counts are printed per cell (set A expected 10.1 / 7.3 / 8.4). | E024 / 未检验UNTESTEDE024 / UNTESTED |
| R 筛选在等保留率下是否优于归档 2.filter?Does the R screen beat the archived 2.filter at equal retention? | 这是 P001 的主要终点；若不优于，方法的全部价值就只剩"选保留率"这一层。This was P001's primary endpoint; if not, the method's whole value reduces to "choosing a retention". | 不优于（已关闭）：四个主集的 E3 全部失败 —— M31 MOS1 13/25（Z = 0.02）、M31 MOS2 21/29（Z = 1.64）、CDFS MOS1 24/29（Z = 1.55）、CDFS MOS2 27/29（Z = 1.73）。CDFS 上符号一致但增益约 0.3%，远低于 Z > 3;按 D7 记"持平"。Not better (closed): E3 fails on all four primary sets — M31 MOS1 13/25 (Z = 0.02), M31 MOS2 21/29 (Z = 1.64), CDFS MOS1 24/29 (Z = 1.55), CDFS MOS2 27/29 (Z = 1.73). On CDFS the sign is consistent but the gain is about 0.3%, far below Z > 3; "no significant difference" under D7. | 已由 CDFS 盲测完成（E003）：证据收据 p001_endpoints_all.json。问题关闭。Done by the CDFS blind run (E003); receipt p001_endpoints_all.json. The question is closed. |
T019 / 在 M31 与 CDFS 上被驳倒REFUTED on M31 and CDFST019 / REFUTED on M31 and CDFS |
| Al 线是否跟随角落粒子水平？(P002 F1/F2)Does the Al line track the corner particle level? (P002 F1/F2) | 若跟随，P001 线门（L_K = L_B）就要允许 L_K/L_B = Q_K/Q_B;若不跟随，线门成立。这决定线门作为粒子锚是否可信（T005/T016）。If it tracks, the P001 line gate (L_K = L_B) must allow L_K/L_B = Q_K/Q_B; if not, the gate stands. This decides whether the line gate is a trustworthy particle anchor (T005/T016). | F1 已答，但 TRACKS 读数已撤回（E004 2026-10-15 更正，D026）：原读数"CDFS MOS2 \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) → TRACKS"是观测时期（epoch）造成的假象；冻结代码加每时期偏移后 CDFS MOS2 \(b=0.690\pm0.020\)，与其余三集 \(b=0.588\pm0.020\)、\(0.602\pm0.070\)、\(0.694\pm0.050\) → INTERMEDIATE。按 §6 未在一般意义上确立。F3：CDFS MOS2 观测之间跟随、观测之内不跟随 → 线测量里的 K/B 系统误差（T005）。F1 is answered but the TRACKS reading is withdrawn (E004 correction 2026-10-15, D026): the original "CDFS MOS2 \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) → TRACKS" was an epoch artefact; the frozen code with per-epoch offsets gives CDFS MOS2 \(b=0.690\pm0.020\), and the other three sets give \(0.588\pm0.020\), \(0.602\pm0.070\), \(0.694\pm0.050\) → INTERMEDIATE. Per §6, not established in general. F3: on CDFS MOS2 the line follows Q between observations but not within them → a K/B systematic in the line measurement (T005). | F2（观测之内）等一次新的 Lockman Hole 还原（派发由 PI 决定）;\(b\approx0.6\text{–}0.7\) 的成因需要自己的预注册（未测：MOS1 几何与 CCD 损失、M31 天空 1.49 keV 贡献、短杠杆臂、不激发 Al 的 Q 分量）。F2 (within observations) waits for one fresh Lockman Hole reduction (dispatched by the PI); the causes of \(b\approx0.6\text{–}0.7\) need their own pre-registration (untested: MOS1 geometry and CCD losses, an M31 sky contribution at 1.49 keV, the short lever arm, and a Q component that does not excite Al). | T022 / 主集支持，复制未确认Supported for primary only; not replicatedT022 / Supported for primary only; not replicated |
| C1b 滤波器在新场上成立吗？Does the C1b filter hold on a fresh field? | C1b 是把 GTI 从"删耀斑"升级为"压观测内系统误差"的第一个具体候选；若在 Lockman Hole 上复现，C001 的 ~2% 目标（\(\ge1000\) s）就有一个可冻结的滤波器。C1b is the first concrete candidate that upgrades the GTI from "cutting flares" to "suppressing the within-observation systematic"; if it replicates on the Lockman Hole, C001's ~2% target (\(\ge1000\) s) gets a freezable filter. | 在已消费的 CDFS 与 M31 上成立（T023,探索性）：观测内 11.6–12.7% → 4.7–6.0%（100 s）,观测间不升高（CDFS 2.1–2.8%）,代价 20–26% 活时间；H（2.5–8 keV）与 S（减半薄化）一致。未在新场或谱上验证。It holds on consumed CDFS and M31 (T023, exploratory): within 11.6–12.7% → 4.7–6.0% (100 s), the between term does not rise (CDFS 2.1–2.8%), at a 20–26% live-time cost; H (2.5–8 keV) and S (thinned halves) agree. Not validated on a fresh field or on spectra. | 已冻结（D012）：H,B = 300 s,n = 1,在 2.filter 之内（commit abc5e602;打分 cell 1000 s）。下一步：一次 Lockman Hole 还原同时检验它与 P002 F2；谱上由 C2 检验。Frozen (D012): H, B = 300 s, n = 1, inside 2.filter (commit abc5e602; scoring at 1000 s cells). Next: one Lockman Hole reduction tests it together with P002 F2; C2 tests it on spectra. | T023 / 已消费数据上支持，未验证Supported on consumed data; not validatedT023 / Supported on consumed data; not validated |
| 100 s cell 上约 5% 的快速"白"残差从哪来？Where does the ~5% fast "white" residual at 100 s cells come from? | 它决定 C001 打分 cell 尺寸的选择：100 s 上它把观测内项顶在 ~5%,\(\ge1000\) s 时只剩 0–2.6%；它不跟随角落，且会从任何谱中平均掉。已定（D012）：主打分用 1000 s cell，100 s 与 3000 s 作诊断。It decides the choice of C001 scoring cell size: at 100 s it floors the within term at ~5%, at \(\ge1000\) s only 0–2.6% remains; it does not follow the corner and averages out of any spectrum. Decided (D012): the primary score uses 1000 s cells, with 100 s and 3000 s as diagnostics. | 两个未测的解释（E005/E006）:仪器事件聚簇（超泊松计数，100 s 处 Fano 因子 1.11–1.19,2.5 s 处 \(\approx1.03\) —— 相关时间几十秒以上;非闪烁像素）,或裁剪阈值以下的快速软质子闪烁。检验方法：对只有粒子能到达的未曝光角落 0.5–2 keV 事件算同一统计量。Two untested explanations (E005/E006): instrumental event clustering (super-Poisson counting, Fano factor 1.11–1.19 at 100 s, \(\approx1.03\) at 2.5 s — a correlation time of tens of seconds; not flickering pixels), or fast soft-proton flicker below the clip threshold. A test: the same statistic on unexposed-corner 0.5–2 keV events, which only particles reach. | 建议（未经评审）：角落 0.5–2 keV 残差统计；结果并入 cell 尺寸或残差起源的后续决定（cell 尺寸本身已由 D012 定为 1000 s）。Suggestion (not reviewed): the corner 0.5–2 keV residual statistic; feed the result into the later decisions on the residual's origin (the cell size itself is already set to 1000 s by D012). | T023 / 未测UNTESTEDT023 / UNTESTED |
| 反事实 Al 亏损（\(-0.028\pm0.013\), MOS2）是真信号吗？Is the counterfactual Al deficit (\(-0.028\pm0.013\), MOS2) real? | 若真，则 L_K = L_B 这个设计级约束本身有偏差；若假，则是未建模系统误差。它决定线门是否可信。If real, the design-level constraint L_K = L_B is itself biased; if not, it is an unmodelled systematic. It decides whether the line gate is trustworthy. | P002 F3 已处置（E004）：在 CDFS MOS2 上，线在观测之间跟随 \(Q\)（\(b=1.015\pm0.030\)）而观测之内的 K/B 线比不跟随角落 —— 指向线测量里的 K/B 系统误差。这成为 T005 在 MOS2 上的主要处置；P001 线门（\(L_K=L_B\)）作为粒子锚仍未被验证。Disposed by P002 F3 (E004): on CDFS MOS2 the line follows \(Q\) between observations (\(b=1.015\pm0.030\)) while the within-observation K/B line ratio does not follow the corner — pointing to a K/B systematic in the line measurement. This is the leading T005 disposition for MOS2; the P001 line gate (\(L_K=L_B\)) stays unvalidated as a particle anchor. | P002 F2（Lockman Hole）与"K/B 线系统误差"的专门预注册；在此之前不关闭。P002 F2 (the Lockman Hole) and a dedicated pre-registration on the K/B line systematic; not closed before that. | T005, T016 / QUESTIONEDT005, T016 / QUESTIONED |
| 角落能否预测 K/B 粒子级变化？Can the corner predict the K/B particle-level change? | 角落在 FOV 外、不经望远镜聚焦，是最干净的粒子监测器；若够准，就能直接检验"Al 亏损 = 粒子变化"。The corner is outside the FOV and receives no focused soft protons — the cleanest particle monitor; if precise enough it can test "Al deficit = particle change" directly. | 已回答（按数据集，D006）：CDFS 上够准（\(\sigma=0.0044\) / \(0.0038\)）且看到了真实的 K/B 粒子级差（被删时间高 1.9% / 3.9%）;M31 MOS1 上太吵（\(\sigma=0.0133\)）。所以 2.filter 也删掉了粒子背景升高的时段，不只是软质子时段。Answered (per set, D006): precise enough on CDFS (\(\sigma=0.0044\) / \(0.0038\)) and it sees a real K/B particle-level difference (rejected time 1.9% / 3.9% higher); too noisy on M31 MOS1 (\(\sigma=0.0133\)). So 2.filter also cuts periods of elevated particle background, not only soft-proton time. | 已由 CDFS E5 完成。遗留的子问题（未预注册）：Al 线不跟随角落 —— 见上面新行。Done by the CDFS E5. Remaining sub-question (not pre-registered): the Al line does not follow the corner — see the new row above. | T017 / 已按数据集回答ANSWERED per setT017 / ANSWERED per set |
| 被移除的成分是软质子还是可变天体源？Is the removed component soft protons or variable celestial sources? | 这是"删掉的东西到底是什么"的身份问题；M31 盘里有很多可变 X 射线双星，是天体源解释的真实竞争者。This is the identity question — what was actually removed; the M31 disk holds many variable X-ray binaries, a genuine celestial competitor. | A1:移除的超额 ~79% 无线 (Al \(-5.96\sigma\));B1:空间延展、非紧凑，更像软质子花样；但仍不能排除多个微弱可变源。A1: the removed excess is ~79% line-free (Al \(-5.96\sigma\)); B1: extended, not compact — closer to the soft-proton pattern; many faint variable sources are not excluded. | CDFS E6（描述性）：CDFS 的中位增益（+0.0035 / +0.0029）比 M31（+0.0005 / +0.0011）大 \(3\text{–}10\) 倍，但同样远低于阈值 —— 与"移除成分主要是软质子、M31 的可变源压低了增益"相容，不构成证明。The CDFS E6 (descriptive): the median CDFS gain (+0.0035 / +0.0029) is \(3\text{–}10\times\) M31's (+0.0005 / +0.0011) but still far below threshold — compatible with "the removed component is mostly soft protons, with M31's variable sources diluting the gain", not proof of it. | T009, T018 / NOT ESTABLISHEDT009, T018 / NOT ESTABLISHED |
来源：ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md (T005, T008, T009, T016–T019, T021);04_DECISION_LOG.md (D002, D005, D006, D096–D105);E002_p001_m31_mos1.md;E003_p001_cdfs_blank_field.md;REDTEAM_QUEUE.md (RT-96–RT-104)。Source: ParetoGTICal/cognition-os/03_TRUST_TABLE.md (T005, T008, T009, T016–T019, T021); 04_DECISION_LOG.md (D002, D005, D006, D096–D105); E002_p001_m31_mos1.md; E003_p001_cdfs_blank_field.md; REDTEAM_QUEUE.md (RT-96–RT-104).
未来 1–4 周计划（按记录 D061–D105；每步给目标、输入、方法、成败检验、时间估计与先读文件）Plan for the next 1–4 weeks (per the records D061–D105; each step with goal, inputs, method, success/failure test, time estimate and the file to read first)
- 已完成：P001 关闭（D006,否定）；C001 判据与 C1/C1b 定义并冻结（D007–D012）；P006 预注册、83 个候选冻结（D061）、保留集判决跑完（E024,D068）并三次收窄（D070–D074）；P007 规则草稿与判决代码 v5（D075–D092）；PI 改判：交付物 = 每个数据集测试的帕累托族（D091/D096/D097）；R51 定尺寸、R53 首次精确家族、R55 多轴家族（20 测试 \(\times\) 103 策略）、R59 QFG z 网格、R54 P007 程序草稿（69 钉版全复核）、R57 草稿、R60 负可行性、R61 光子拆分缓存（146/146）；P007 数据集定为变体 C（D103）。Done: P001 closed (D006, negative); the C001 criterion and C1/C1b defined and frozen (D007–D012); the P006 pre-registration, 83 candidates frozen (D061), the held-out verdict run (E024, D068) and narrowed three times (D070–D074); the P007 rule draft and verdict code v5 (D075–D092); the PI's re-frame: the deliverable is the Pareto family per dataset test (D091/D096/D097); R51 sizing, R53 the first exact family, R55 the multi-axis family (20 tests \(\times\) 103 policies), R59 the QFG z-grid, R54 the P007 procedure draft (all 69 pins re-hashed), R57 the draft, R60 negative feasibility, R61 the photon-split caches (146/146); the P007 data set fixed as variant C (D103).
- (a) P007 冻结与运行（主线）。目标：在全新的天空上回答"哪些策略在每个数据集测试的帕累托族里"（D096/D097），\(\sigma_R\) 只是轴之一。输入：规则草稿
prereg/P007_rule_draft.md、R54 程序草稿与冻结清单（69 钉版）、家族代码 r55.py（sha 8551aabc…）、变体 C 观测清单（54 个，D103）、判决代码 v5。方法：家族代码（R55 的 r55.py 已钉版）\(\to\) R58 防丢弃轴 + R63 颜色轴并入 \(\to\) R57 冻结 \(\to\) PI 过目 \(\to\) 冻结规则文本与清单（哈希，R54 草稿已有 69 钉版）\(\to\) 下载/还原变体 C 的 54 个观测（免费执行者）\(\to\) 建缓存 \(\to\) 一次打分 \(\to\) 家族 + 成员频率判决 \(\to\) 红队。成败检验：每个数据集测试给出其家族与每个策略的成员频率；\(\varepsilon\) 容差与参照对比全部降为描述列（D096）。时间估计：前置步骤 1–2 天，冻结半天，还原约 1–2 天（免费执行者），打分与判决数小时。先读：prereg/P007_rule_draft.md§1–§10 与results/r54_procedure/luna/P007_procedure_draft.md。(a) Freeze and run P007 (the main line). Goal: on fresh sky, answer "which policies are in the Pareto family of each dataset test" (D096/D097), with \(\sigma_R\) only one axis among several. Inputs: the rule draftprereg/P007_rule_draft.md, the R54 procedure draft and freeze manifest (69 pins), the family code r55.py (sha 8551aabc…), the variant C census list (54 observations, D103), the verdict code v5. Method: the family code (R55's r55.py is pinned) \(\to\) fold in the R58 drop-proof axis and the R63 colour axes \(\to\) freeze R57 \(\to\) the PI reviews \(\to\) freeze the rule text and manifest (hashed; the R54 draft already has 69 pins) \(\to\) download/reduce the 54 observations of variant C (free executors) \(\to\) build caches \(\to\) one scoring run \(\to\) the family + membership-frequency verdict \(\to\) red team. Success/failure: each dataset test yields its family and every policy's membership frequency; the \(\varepsilon\) tolerances and the reference comparisons all become descriptive columns (D096). Time: the pre-steps 1-2 days, the freeze half a day, reduction 1-2 days (free executors), scoring and verdict hours. Read first:prereg/P007_rule_draft.md§1–§10 andresults/r54_procedure/luna/P007_procedure_draft.md. - (b) R41（已完成，D080/D086）：给全部 83 个候选排序，定死主列表。结果：按家族取前 5 定为 XJ.MS、KFP_z3_a1、JFR_z3、LG.MS、KFR2_t600_a1（D086；D096 后降为 \(\sigma_R\) 轴描述）。原目标：把 P007 主列表从"暂定 5 个"变成"按发展数据 \(\bar D\) 排序的全部 83 个中的前 5 个"。输入：R38 功效表、83 个候选的发展集分数。方法：补齐 27 个缺发展集分数的候选（可从 gen3 per_obs 打分），排序，取前 5。成败检验：主列表的期望假 Confirmed \(\leq 0.1\)（全局零假设下）。时间估计：数小时。先读：
04_DECISION_LOG.mdD079。(b) R41 (done, D080/D086): rank all 83 candidates and fix the primary list. Result: the one-per-family top 5 became XJ.MS, KFP_z3_a1, JFR_z3, LG.MS, KFR2_t600_a1 (D086; after D096 a descriptive \(\sigma_R\)-axis view). Original goal: turn the P007 primary list from "5 provisional" into "the top 5 of all 83 ranked by development \(\bar D\)". Inputs: the R38 power table, the 83 candidates' development scores. Method: score the 27 candidates missing development scores (from gen3 per_obs), rank, take the top 5. Success/failure: expected false Confirmed of the primary list \(\leq 0.1\) under a global null. Time: hours. Read first:04_DECISION_LOG.mdD079. - (c) R42（已完成，D082/D083）：候选的增益有多少来自"删掉灾难观测"而非"删掉更脏的时间"？结果：XJ.MS、JFR_z3、GATE0_f0.15 的池化增益 57–102% 来自整段丢弃参照保留的观测；D084 加了同观测守卫（后为 D089 曝光匹配形式）。原目标：回答 P007 检验的到底是什么。输入：P006 保留集分数、每观测的 \(\tau^2\) 表。方法：对每个候选分解"增益份额 = 来自被整段删掉的观测 vs 来自同观测内更干净的时间"。成败检验：每个候选打印该份额；若主候选的份额以删观测为主，P007 的解读要写明这一点。时间估计：数小时。先读：
04_DECISION_LOG.mdD079（5）。(c) R42 (done, D082/D083): how much of a candidate's gain comes from "dropping catastrophic observations" rather than "cleaner time"? Result: 57-102% of the pooled gain of XJ.MS, JFR_z3, GATE0_f0.15 comes from wholly dropping observations the reference keeps; D084 added the same-observation guard (the D089 exposure-matched form). Original goal: say what P007 actually tests. Inputs: the P006 held-out scores, the per-observation \(\tau^2\) tables. Method: for each candidate, decompose the gain share into "from wholly dropped observations" vs "from cleaner time within the kept ones". Success/failure: the share is printed per candidate; if the main candidates' share is drop-dominated, the P007 reading states it. Time: hours. Read first:04_DECISION_LOG.mdD079 (5). - (d) 谱验证 C2 与 P002 F2（等 PI 派发）。目标：把快速判据最终落到光谱一致性上。输入：C1 里最好的 2–3 个政策与 2.filter。方法：用到 MosaicSelfCal CDFS 金/银 cell 上，按 LHB 与 halo 归一化的一致性 \(\tau\) 打分，再上 M31CGM；P002 F2 用一次新的 Lockman Hole 还原同时检验。成功标准：快速判据的排名与谱 \(\tau\) 的排名一致。时间估计：由 PI 决定派发时间。先读：
prereg/C001_error_budget_criterion.md§4。 - (e) R58：防丢弃的观测间轴（进行中）。目标：让"观测间一致性"轴不能靠丢观测变好。输入：R55 家族表、RT-101 的复算（MOS_g3 2/11 \(\to\) between 0）。方法：把 between 项定义在共同保留的观测上（或按覆盖加权），重算家族。成败检验：新旧 between 轴下家族并列打印；丢观测策略在新轴下不再入族。时间估计：数小时到 1 天。先读：
04_DECISION_LOG.mdD101。(e) R58: the drop-proof between-observation axis (running). Goal: make the between-observation consistency axis impossible to improve by dropping observations. Inputs: the R55 family tables, RT-101's replay (MOS_g3 2/11 \(\to\) between 0). Method: define the between term on commonly kept observations (or weight by coverage) and recompute the family. Success/failure: the family printed under the old and new between axes side by side; drop-driven policies no longer enter under the new axis. Time: hours to 1 day. Read first:04_DECISION_LOG.mdD101. - (f) R63：颜色/形状轴进家族（进行中）。目标：把能谱形状一致性（H/S、U/S 颜色）作为家族的一轴，且不重新编码 GTI 选择（RT-103 教训）。输入：R61 光子拆分缓存（146/146 精确还原）、S-P06 的逐观测 QPB 色偏 \(d_i\)、S-P08 的 SWCX 旗标。方法：在拆分后的独立半区上算颜色散布，非零 \(\tau\) 区间建好后并入 R57。成败检验：颜色轴只加成员不删成员（R56 的先例），且与保留率的相关显著低于 R56 的 \(r=0.82\)。时间估计：1–2 天。先读：
04_DECISION_LOG.mdD104、D105。(f) R63: the colour/shape axes into the family (running). Goal: add spectral-shape consistency (the H/S and U/S colours) as a family axis without re-encoding the GTI selection (the RT-103 lesson). Inputs: the R61 photon-split caches (146/146 exact), the S-P06 per-observation QPB colour offsets \(d_i\), the S-P08 SWCX flag. Method: compute colour scatter on the independent halves after the split; join R57 once the non-zero-\(\tau\) intervals exist. Success/failure: the colour axis adds members only (the R56 precedent) and correlates with the retained rate well below R56's \(r=0.82\). Time: 1-2 days. Read first:04_DECISION_LOG.mdD104, D105. - (g) R57 冻结：同天区谱形状验证。目标：给家族的形状轴一个预注册的真检验。输入：R57 草稿（37 集、285 ObsID、H/S 与 U/S、光子 50/50 拆分）、R61 缓存、S-P05 容差文献（H/S 10%、U/S 20%）。方法：补齐非零 \(\tau\) 区间与 \(d_i\)、SWCX 旗标后哈希冻结；RT-104 复查。成败检验：干跑的 \(\tau=0\) 零假设区间覆盖 \(\geq 92.5\%\)（R61 已达）；冻结后不改。时间估计：半天。先读：
04_DECISION_LOG.mdD102、D104、D105。(g) Freeze R57: the same-sky spectral-shape validation. Goal: give the family's shape axis a pre-registered real test. Inputs: the R57 draft (37 sets, 285 ObsIDs, H/S and U/S, the photon 50/50 split), the R61 caches, the S-P05 tolerance literature (H/S 10%, U/S 20%). Method: complete the non-zero-\(\tau\) intervals, \(d_i\) and the SWCX flag, then hash-freeze; RT-104 re-checks. Success/failure: the dry-run \(\tau=0\) null-interval coverage \(\geq 92.5\%\) (R61 already meets it); no change after the freeze. Time: half a day. Read first:04_DECISION_LOG.mdD102, D104, D105. (d) Spectral validation C2 and P002 F2 (await the PI's dispatch). Goal: land the quick criterion on spectral consistency at last. Inputs: the 2–3 best C1 policies and 2.filter. Method: apply them to the MosaicSelfCal CDFS golden/silver cells, score the consistency \(\tau\) of the LHB and halo normalisations, then M31CGM; P002 F2 is tested together with one fresh Lockman Hole reduction. Success: the quick-metric ranking matches the spectral-\(\tau\) ranking. Time: the PI decides the dispatch. Read first:
prereg/C001_error_budget_criterion.md §4.
来源：
cognition-os/RESEARCH_PLAN.md（R49–R63 行）；04_DECISION_LOG.md D061–D105；prereg/P007_rule_draft.md §9–§10；results/r54_procedure/luna/P007_procedure_draft.md；00_AI_BRIEFING.md 状态行。Source: cognition-os/RESEARCH_PLAN.md (rows R49–R63); 04_DECISION_LOG.md D061–D105; prereg/P007_rule_draft.md §9–§10; results/r54_procedure/luna/P007_procedure_draft.md; the 00_AI_BRIEFING.md status line.一分钟看懂核心矛盾（动画）The core conflict in one minute (animation)
光变曲线 + 阈值滑块 → GTI、f_T、保留计数实时更新Light curve + threshold slider → GTI, f_T and retained counts update live
拖动阈值：蓝色是保留的时间 K,红色是被删的 B。f_T 是保留活时间比例；R 用玩具模型模拟"删高率时间为什么会让 R>1"。
Drag the threshold: blue is kept time K, red is rejected B. f_T is the retained live-time fraction; R uses a toy model to show why cutting high-rate time gives R > 1.
本次更新What's new
2026-10-20（第六次更新，折入 D080–D105）:
2026-10-20 (sixth edition; D080–D105 folded in):
- 头条：PI 把结果改判为"帕累托族"（D096/D097） —— 在每个明确的数据集测试里，只要没有别的策略在所有轴上至少持平且在一轴上严格更好，这个策略就保留；没有单一赢家，没有对参照的通过/失败；旧的 Confirmed 规则降为 \(\sigma_R\) 轴的描述性读数。保留时间回到判据里当一个轴（D091），不再是可以一票否决的门槛。Headline: the PI re-framed the result as a "Pareto family" (D096/D097) — within each explicit dataset test, a policy is kept when no other is at least as good on every axis and strictly better on one; no single winner, no pass/fail against a reference; the old Confirmed rule becomes a descriptive \(\sigma_R\)-axis view. Kept time returns to the criterion as an axis (D091), no longer a gate.
- R55 家族首跑（D101）：20 个数据集测试 \(\times\) 103 个策略，精确支配下 2.filter 在 19/20 个测试是成员、E_k2.5 20/20、none 20/20；D086 五领导 8-17/20，靠保留时间/覆盖率轴。R59 把 QFG 的 z 网格全部当候选（不再"选" z）。红队 RT-101/RT-103 抓出观测间轴可被"丢观测"操纵、硬度轴重新编码选择 —— 成员随覆盖数打印，两轴保持描述性。The R55 family first run (D101): 20 dataset tests \(\times\) 103 policies; under exact dominance 2.filter is a member in 19/20, E_k2.5 20/20, none 20/20; the D086 five leaders 8-17/20, through the kept-time/coverage axes. R59 puts QFG's whole z-grid in as candidates (no z is "chosen"). The red teams RT-101/RT-103 caught the between axis being gameable by dropping observations and the hardness axis re-encoding the selection — members are printed with coverage counts and both axes stay descriptive.
- P007 定形：数据集定为变体 C（54 观测，D103）；NGC 5907 接受为同天扩展（D100）；同天区谱形状验证（R57）获批并成稿，但未冻结 —— R60 干跑证明旧缓存不可用（负可行性），R61 用伯努利 50/50 光子拆分重建缓存（146/146 精确还原，\(\tau=0\) 区间覆盖 92.5-100%）。P007 takes shape: the data set is variant C (54 observations, D103); NGC 5907 accepted as same-sky extension (D100); the same-sky spectral-shape validation (R57) approved and drafted, but not frozen — the R60 dry run proved the old caches unusable (negative feasibility), and R61 rebuilt them with a Bernoulli 50/50 photon split (146/146 exact, \(\tau=0\) interval coverage 92.5-100%).
- 诚实更正（评审与红队，全部复算）：D085 撤回"功效区间"措辞（发展替身与已用数据是两个情景，不是上下界）；RT-99 撤回 QFG 的"领先者"称呼（优势是 \(\varepsilon_T\) 负载的）；D093 的"未完全定种子"注记被 RT-98 撤回（逐位一致）；R51 Hermes 臂与 codexnim 臂一致。Honest corrections (reviews and red teams, all replayed): D085 withdrew the "power bracket" wording (development stand-ins and spent data are two scenarios, not bounds); RT-99 withdrew QFG's "leader" label (the edge is \(\varepsilon_T\)-contingent); D093's "sizing not fully seeded" note was withdrawn by RT-98 (bit-exact); the R51 Hermes arm agrees with the codexnim arm.
- 文献与专家：没有已发表的"保留时间 \(\times\) 重复观测一致性"联合帕累托处理（S-P01，16 源）；专家建议保留 none 与完整精确族、加 \(\varepsilon=(0,0)\)、A3 可合法地无结论（D098）。Literature and experts: no published joint Pareto treatment of retained time vs repeated-observation consistency (S-P01, 16 sources); the expert advised keeping none and the full exact family, adding \(\varepsilon=(0,0)\), and that A3 may legitimately end unresolved (D098).
- 页面更新：组会页新增 2026-10-20 块与 10-19 块的更正注；目标表加第 6 行（按数据集测试评价家族）；开放问题表加两行（防丢弃轴、R57 冻结）；计划改为 (a)–(g) 七步；论文草稿与报告已改写为帕累托族框架。Pages updated: the meetings page gains the 2026-10-20 block plus a correction note in the 10-19 block; the objectives table gains row 6 (evaluate the family per dataset test); the open-problems table gains two rows (the drop-proof axis, the R57 freeze); the plan becomes seven steps (a)-(g); the paper draft and seminar are rewritten to the Pareto-family framing.
2026-10-19（第五次更新，组会页与论文/报告两页新增；折入 D058–D079）:
2026-10-19 (fifth edition; new group-meeting, paper-draft and seminar pages; D058–D079 folded in):
- 新页面：组会档案（meetings.html）—— 每个 UTC 日一块，四部分固定为成果 / 工作 / 问题 / 待 PI 决定，只用有日期的记录写；首页顶部是最新一天的完整块，更早的是一行链接。New page: the group-meeting archive (meetings.html) — one block per UTC day with the four fixed parts Results / Work / Problems / For the PI, written only from dated records; the home page carries the latest day in full and earlier days as one-line links.
- 新页面：论文草稿（paper.html）与报告幻灯片加完整讲稿（seminar.html）—— 面向不认识本项目的graduate student与教授，按普通期刊与组会实践写；只收已确立的结果，每个数字带来源标记。New pages: the paper draft (paper.html) and the seminar slides with the full talk script (seminar.html) — written for graduate students and professors who do not know the project, following ordinary journal and seminar practice; only established results, every number with a source marker.
- 保留集判决跑完（P006,2026-10-18）：在 119 个从未参与开发的观测上，83 个冻结候选中 79 个相对归档 2.filter 是 Confirmed（23 个家族），中位 \(\delta\) 为 HO-M31 MOS1 \(-10.1\) pp、MOS2 \(-3.7\) pp；HO-blank \(-3.2\) / \(-2.9\)；HO-mixed \(-2.9\) / \(-3.5\) pp。判决由冻结代码链产生，Claude 逐字节重放，红队执行 QA 0 条实质问题。The held-out verdict ran (P006, 2026-10-18): on 119 observations that took no part in development, 79 of 83 frozen candidates are Confirmed against the archived 2.filter (23 families), median \(\delta\) HO-M31 MOS1 \(-10.1\) pp, MOS2 \(-3.7\) pp; HO-blank \(-3.2\) / \(-2.9\); HO-mixed \(-2.9\) / \(-3.5\) pp. The verdict came from the frozen code chain, was replayed byte-identically by Claude, and the red-team execution QA found 0 material.
- 同日三次收窄（诚实限定，全部复算）：① 2.filter 是弱参照 —— 204 个非候选政策里也有 50 个通过同一规则；② 对复现的标准光变曲线滤波器（espfilt 加硬段裁剪，EH_B1000_n2）只剩 11/83，且全部保留更少时间（0.32–0.76 对 0.81–0.93）；③ 对"等保留时间的最好复现滤波器"配对自举 0–1/83（点估计 37/83，对种子脆弱）—— 未确立。Three narrowings the same days (honest limits, all replayed): ① 2.filter is a weak reference — 50 of 204 non-candidate policies also pass the same rule; ② against the reproduced standard light-curve filter (espfilt plus a hard-band clip, EH_B1000_n2) only 11 of 83 survive, all keeping less time (0.32–0.76 vs 0.81–0.93); ③ against the best reproduced-filter setting at matched kept time a paired bootstrap gives 0–1 of 83 (point estimate 37/83, seed-fragile) — not established.
- HO-M31 MOS1 的 \(-10.1\) pp 拆分（R29）：约 4.6 pp 来自一个损坏的归档 2.filter GTI（0202230301），约 5.5 pp 是候选在更难环境下的自身性质（去一观测法 \(-3.2\) 到 \(-6.1\) pp）。Al-K 线门每格只在 0–3 个观测上触发，所以判决没有检验它。The HO-M31 MOS1 \(-10.1\) pp is split (R29): about 4.6 pp from one broken archived 2.filter GTI (0202230301) and about 5.5 pp a candidate property in a harder regime (leave-one-out \(-3.2\) to \(-6.1\) pp). The Al-K line gate fires on 0–3 observations per cell, so the verdict does not test it.
- P007 规则草稿 1 与判决代码就绪（D075–D079）：主估计量 = 六格等权平均 \(\bar D\) 对 EH_B1000_n2（\(\delta_0=0.5\) pp，伤害守卫，六格全有效）；状态 Confirmed / No gain \(\geq 0.5\) shown / Ambiguous / Invalid；规模 \(\leq 3\%\)（集 A）/ 1.4%（集 C）；发展集功效只报区间（0.013–0.164）。R36 的 0.42 功效数字被撤回（样本内值）。The P007 rule draft 1 and the verdict code are ready (D075–D079): primary estimand = the equal-weight six-cell mean \(\bar D\) vs EH_B1000_n2 (\(\delta_0=0.5\) pp, harm guard, all cells valid); states Confirmed / No gain \(\geq 0.5\) shown / Ambiguous / Invalid; size \(\leq 3\%\) (set A) / 1.4% (set C); development power quoted only as a range (0.013–0.164). R36's 0.42 power figure was withdrawn (in-sample).
- 新参照 QFG（只用光变曲线、无 2.filter、无角落）通过发展筛选 8/8；在已用过的保留集数据上对 2.filter Confirmed 6/6，但对 EH_B1000_n2 Not confirmed（\(\bar D=-0.70\) pp，Ambiguous）。The new reference QFG (light curves only, no 2.filter, no corner) passes the development screen 8/8; on the spent held-out data it is Confirmed 6/6 vs 2.filter but Not confirmed vs EH_B1000_n2 (\(\bar D=-0.70\) pp, Ambiguous).
- P002 F1 的"CDFS MOS2 TRACKS"读数已于 2026-10-15 撤回（红队检查 RT-02，E004 更正）：那是观测时期造成的假象，加每时期偏移后 \(b=0.690\pm0.020\)，四集都是"中间"。The P002 F1 "CDFS MOS2 TRACKS" reading was withdrawn on 2026-10-15 (red-team check RT-02, E004 correction): it was an epoch artefact; with per-epoch offsets \(b=0.690\pm0.020\) and all four sets are INTERMEDIATE.
2026-10-16（第四次更新，新增前沿策略对比页；当日二次折入 D2 记录）:
2026-10-16 (fourth edition, a new frontier-policies page, with the D2 records folded in the same day):
- 新页面"前沿策略对比"（frontier.html）：十个 GTI 政策（2.filter、6 个搜索政策、MS_z3.5_core、EH_B1000_n2、Q_d0.05_n2、none）的光变曲线、单观测与全观测叠加的帕累托前沿、31 观测配对一致性、M31 竖直剖面，以及"某政策在前沿哪里"的下拉选择（选一个政策，两张前沿图换成它的高亮版）。每张图背后的"未检出"与"待 PI 决定"都写明。New page "Frontier policies" (frontier.html): light curves, the single-observation and stacked Pareto fronts, the 31-observation paired consistency, and the M31 vertical profile for ten GTI policies (2.filter, 6 search policies, MS_z3.5_core, EH_B1000_n2, Q_d0.05_n2, none), plus a "where does policy X sit" dropdown that switches both front figures to the chosen policy's highlighted version. The "not detected" and the "pending with the PI" are stated alongside every figure.
- 头条数字：在 25 个没人设计过的测试观测上，
gen2:hermes.FLR_z3把叠加 \(\sigma_R\) 从 5.15% 降到 3.81%（MOS1，配对差 −1.34 pp，自举展宽 [−1.98, −0.65]）、从 5.84% 降到 3.93%（MOS2，−1.92 [−2.58, −1.18]），保留 0.85–0.87 的活时间；FLR_z3、MS_z3.5_core、RT3_h2.5_l1 这 3 个政策在 4 个集 \(\times\) 2 台相机共 8 种组合上都优于 2.filter（R9）。Headline: on the 25 test observations no designer saw,gen2:hermes.FLR_z3takes the stacked \(\sigma_R\) from 5.15% to 3.81% (MOS1, paired difference −1.34 pp, bootstrap spread [−1.98, −0.65]) and from 5.84% to 3.93% (MOS2, −1.92 [−2.58, −1.18]) while keeping 0.85–0.87 of live time; these 3 policies (FLR_z3, MS_z3.5_core, RT3_h2.5_l1) beat 2.filter in all 8 \(\text{set}\times\text{camera}\) cases (4 sets \(\times\) 2 cameras; R9). - 同日折入的诚实限定：① RT-16 F-01 —— 优势主要是修好 2.filter 失效的观测（M31 MOS1 去掉 2 个最差观测后 FLR_z3 只剩 −0.79 pp，MS_z3.5_core 变成 +0.33 pp 持平）；② RT-18 —— \(\sigma_{RC}\) 降级，只用 \(\sigma_R\) 排名并另报每个政策丢掉的观测数；③ E022 —— FLR_z3 的优势来自绝对硬度门 \(r_0=1.8\)，同一个门在 Virgo-server 集上丢掉 51/142（MOS1，34% 时间）与 54/142（MOS2，38%）个观测，主候选正在被重新询问；④ RT-15 —— 竖直剖面读法取决于曝光模型（平坦曝光下 2.filter 在 2 台相机都排最后）；⑤ E021 —— R2 跨观测静息参考跑完，没有产生新领先者，但场参照门能拒绝 LH 0101；⑥ RT-17/R10 —— "复现 2.filter" 改为文件级。Honest limits folded in the same day: ① RT-16 F-01 — the advantage is mostly the repair of 2.filter's failed observations (on M31 MOS1, removing the 2 worst observations leaves FLR_z3 at only −0.79 pp and turns MS_z3.5_core into +0.33 pp, no significant difference); ② RT-18 — \(\sigma_{RC}\) is demoted, so ranking uses \(\sigma_R\) only with the dropped-observation count reported separately; ③ E022 — FLR_z3's edge comes from its absolute hardness gate \(r_0=1.8\), and the same gate drops 51/142 observations (MOS1, 34% of the time) and 54/142 (MOS2, 38%) on the Virgo-server set, so the main candidate is being re-asked; ④ RT-15 — the vertical-profile reading depends on the exposure model (under a flat exposure 2.filter is last on 2 cameras); ⑤ E021 — R2's cross-observation quiescent reference finished with no new leader, but a field-referenced gate does reject LH 0101; ⑥ RT-17/R10 — "reproducing 2.filter" is now file-level.
- 同时如实记录：竖直剖面的中位 \(\tau_b\) 改善"未检出"（检验功效 \(1\text{–}2\sigma\)，RT-12 F-01）；池化的每观测水平偏移上 FLR_z3 在 MOS2 上 −2.0 pp（95% [−3.3, −0.7]）、Q_d0.05_n2 在 2 台相机都降，但该统计量是事后选择的，待 R7 预注册；Lockman Hole 的观测间项 14.6% / 23.3% 几乎全由 0022740101 一个观测贡献（RT-06，espfilt 锁到耀斑上）。Recorded honestly alongside: the median-\(\tau_b\) profile improvement is "not detected" (the test has \(1\text{–}2\sigma\) power, RT-12 F-01); on the pooled per-observation offset statistic FLR_z3 lowers MOS2 by −2.0 pp (95% [−3.3, −0.7]) and Q_d0.05_n2 lowers 2 cameras, but that statistic was chosen after the fact and awaits R7's pre-registration; the Lockman Hole between term, 14.6% / 23.3%, is carried almost entirely by the single observation 0022740101 (RT-06, espfilt locking onto a flare).
2026-10-14（第三次更新，D007–D012 刷新）:
2026-10-14 (third edition, the D007-D012 refresh):
- PI 把下游成功判据定义为误差预算(C001,D007/D008):单观测看 \(\sigma_{\mathrm{tot}}\)，多观测先看一致性；0.5–2 keV 拼接光变曲线的 \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}=17\text{–}25\%\)（2.filter），对 \(s_{\mathrm{stat}}\) 0.04–0.2% —— 系统误差约大 \(100\) 倍。The PI defined the downstream success criterion as the error budget (C001, D007/D008): \(\sigma_{\mathrm{tot}}\) for a single observation, consistency first over a set; the 0.5–2 keV concatenated-light-curve \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}\) is 17–25% (2.filter) against \(s_{\mathrm{stat}}\) 0.04–0.2% — the systematic is about \(100\times\) larger.
- 历史的 M31 2.1.filter 在多个观测上灾难性失败（3 个 MOS2、5 个 MOS1 完全不切;另一些只留 0.1–2.9 ks），且其"1.6%"被撤回：它在 0.2–10 keV 上选择，包含 0.5–2 keV 打分带 —— 选择与打分同一批事件给出 0.0%。The historical M31 2.1.filter fails catastrophically on several observations (no cut at all on 3 MOS2 and 5 MOS1; 0.1–2.9 ks left on others), and its "1.6%" is withdrawn: it selects on 0.2–10 keV, which contains the 0.5–2 keV score band — selecting and scoring on the same events gives 0.0%.
- C1（D010）：每个观测一个角落项把观测间部分从 ~12% 降到 3–4%（CDFS）;剩下的主导项是 2.filter 留下的 ~12% 观测内变化。C1 (D010): a per-observation corner term takes the between part from ~12% to 3–4% (CDFS); the dominant remainder is the ~12% within-observation variability left by 2.filter.
- C1b（D011）：2.filter 内的不相交能段（FOV 2.5–8 keV）裁剪（B = 300 s,n = 1）把观测内项从 11.6–12.7% 减到 4.7–6.0%（100 s），代价 20–26% 活时间；\(\ge1000\) s 时 0–2.6%，达到 ~2% 目标。CDFS 角落修正后 \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}\):12.5% → 6.1%（MOS2）、12.0% → 5.2%（MOS1）。C1b (D011): a disjoint-band (FOV 2.5–8 keV) clip inside 2.filter (B = 300 s, n = 1) cuts the within term from 11.6–12.7% to 4.7–6.0% (100 s) for 20–26% of live time; at \(\ge1000\) s it is 0–2.6%, meeting the ~2% target. CDFS corner-corrected \(s_{\mathrm{sys}}\): 12.5% → 6.1% (MOS2), 12.0% → 5.2% (MOS1).
- P002 批准、冻结（1eb687b）并跑完 F1（D009）：CDFS MOS2 \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) → TRACKS;其余三集 \(b\approx0.6\text{–}0.7\) → INTERMEDIATE。"Al 线是粒子监测器"未在一般意义上确立。F3 指向线测量里的 K/B 系统误差（T005）。P002 was approved, frozen (1eb687b) and F1 run (D009): CDFS MOS2 \(b=1.015\pm0.030\) → TRACKS; the other three sets give \(b\approx0.6\text{–}0.7\) → INTERMEDIATE. "The Al line is a particle monitor" is not established in general. F3 points to a K/B systematic in the line measurement (T005).
- 100 s cell 上约 5% 的快速"白"残差是新的未解问题：裁剪后仍在、不跟随角落（观测内角落回归只移走 \(\le0.7\) 点）、会从谱中平均掉；其来源未测（事件聚簇 Fano \(\approx1.17\)，或阈值下的快速软质子闪烁）。The ~5% fast "white" residual at 100 s cells is a new open question: it survives the clip, does not follow the corner (a within-observation corner regression removes \(\le0.7\) points), and averages out of spectra; its origin is untested (event clustering, Fano \(\approx1.17\), or fast soft-proton flicker below the clip).
- 下一步（PI,D011/D012）:冻结已完成（H,B = 300 s,n = 1;cell 尺寸 1000 s;commit abc5e602），下一次是一次 Lockman Hole 还原，同时检验 P002 F2 与冻结滤波器；C2 在 P002 之后。Lockman Hole"后面再派"，不预设日期。Next (PI, D011/D012): the freeze is done (H, B = 300 s, n = 1; cell size 1000 s; commit abc5e602); the next step is one Lockman Hole reduction testing both P002 F2 and the frozen filter; C2 after P002. The Lockman Hole is dispatched later; no date invented.
- 新页面："误差预算与 Al 线"(budget.html),从零讲 C001 与 P002,含撤回的 1.6% 一节；两张新图:P002 F1 四集散点、C1b cell 尺寸依赖。New page: "Error budget and the Al line" (budget.html), teaching C001 and P002 from zero, including the withdrawn 1.6% claim; two new figures: the P002 F1 four-set scatter and the C1b cell-size dependence.
2026-10-13（第二次更新，D006 刷新）:P001 关闭，主问题否定;CDFS 盲测完成（E003）;角落按数据集回答;探索性角落–Al 张力（后由 P002 接手）。
2026-10-13 (second edition, the D006 refresh): P001 closed negative; the CDFS blind run complete (E003); the corner answered per set; the exploratory corner-vs-Al tension (later taken over by P002).
2026-10-13(第一版）:本手册随 ParetoGTICal 迁移入 DXC 后建立，覆盖 D001–D005。
2026-10-13 (first edition): this handbook was built after ParetoGTICal migrated into DXC, covering D001–D005.
数据截至Data as of
2026-10-20T11:08Z（所读最新来源：cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D105（2026-10-20 07:08 EDT）；cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md 状态行（2026-10-20 04:28 EDT，D080–D101）；cognition-os/08_RUNNING.md（2026-10-20 07:08 EDT）；cognition-os/RESEARCH_PLAN.md（R49–R63 行）；cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md（RT-96–RT-104）；cognition-os/06_AGENT_LOG.md 至 2026-10-20 07:08 EDT）。
2026-10-20T11:08Z (newest sources read: cognition-os/04_DECISION_LOG.md D105 (2026-10-20 07:08 EDT); the cognition-os/00_AI_BRIEFING.md status line (2026-10-20 04:28 EDT, D080-D101); cognition-os/08_RUNNING.md (2026-10-20 07:08 EDT); cognition-os/RESEARCH_PLAN.md (rows R49-R63); cognition-os/REDTEAM_QUEUE.md (RT-96-RT-104); cognition-os/06_AGENT_LOG.md to 2026-10-20 07:08 EDT).