组会记录（每日一块，最新在上）Group-meeting archive (one block per day, newest first)

2026-10-17（UTC）2026-10-17 (UTC)

成果 / ResultsResults

• R17b（家族成员的自举频率）跑完：在 \(\varepsilon=0.005\) 上，M31 上没有稳定成员；RT3 在 Lockman Hole 的全部 cell 上 \(\geq0.88\)，其他 0–0.69；CDFS/Virgo 的稳定成员都是 2.filter 家族。配对标准差 0.33–0.98 pp，大于 \(\varepsilon\)。信任状态：provisional（发展中数据）。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 06:42Z；04_DECISION_LOG.md D031。R17b (bootstrap membership frequency of the family) finished: at \(\varepsilon=0.005\) no stable member on M31; RT3 \(\geq0.88\) on every Lockman Hole cell, 0–0.69 elsewhere; the stable CDFS/Virgo members are all 2.filter family. The paired standard deviation is 0.33–0.98 pp, larger than \(\varepsilon\). Trust state: Provisional (development data). Source: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 06:42Z; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D031.
• R18（分段长度敏感性）在四个集上全部跑完：六个领先政策对 2.filter 的 \(\delta\) 在 500/1000/2000 s 全部 8 个 cell 上 \(p84<0\)；但成员频率对分段长度不稳定。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 07:37Z、08:41Z；04_DECISION_LOG.md D033/D035。R18 (piece-length sensitivity) finished on all four sets: the six leaders' \(\delta\) vs 2.filter has \(p84<0\) in all 8 cells at 500/1000/2000 s; but membership frequency is not robust to the piece length. Source: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 07:37Z, 08:41Z; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D033/D035.
• R19（保留集普查）完成：130 个观测的保留集由规则固定（HO-M31 12 / HO-blank 54 / HO-mixed 64），约 29 GB ODF。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 05:23Z；04_DECISION_LOG.md D030。R19 (held-out census) complete: the 130-observation held-out set fixed by rule (HO-M31 12 / HO-blank 54 / HO-mixed 64), about 29 GB of ODF. Source: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 05:23Z; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D030.
• R20 gen3 政策搜索：Hermes 链 18:29Z 跑完，17 个 Hermes 模块政策通过筛选，分 4 个家族（E023 修订）。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 18:34Z。R20 gen3 policy search: the Hermes chain finished 18:29Z; 17 Hermes-module policies pass the screen in 4 families (E023 amendment). Source: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 18:34Z.
• R23（保留集可执行性）身份检验：4 个模块 \(\times\) 4 个集共 36,520 个掩模逐一比对，0 个不同。来源：06_AGENT_LOG.md 2026-10-18T00:37Z；04_DECISION_LOG.md D044。R23 (held-out executability) identity test: 36,520 masks compared over 4 modules \(\times\) 4 sets, 0 different. Source: 06_AGENT_LOG.md 2026-10-18T00:37Z; 04_DECISION_LOG.md D044.

工作 / WorkWork

• 派发与三线的红队（免费 Hermes / codexnim）：RT-38（P006 事前剖析，12 条发现，3 条实质）、RT-39（家族成员独立性）、RT-40（分段长度）、RT-42（P006 读数规则）。全部由 Claude 独立复算后采纳。Red teams dispatched and triaged (free Hermes / codexnim): RT-38 (P006 pre-mortem, 12 findings, 3 material), RT-39 (family-member independence), RT-40 (piece length), RT-42 (P006 reading rule). All adopted after Claude's independent recomputation.
• P006 预注册按修订改写：主估计量改为 \(\delta=\sigma_R(\text{候选})-\sigma_R(2.filter)\)（D033），成员频率降为描述量；分段规则冻结 1000 s（D035）。The P006 pre-registration rewritten by amendment: the primary estimand becomes \(\delta=\sigma_R(\text{candidate})-\sigma_R(2.filter)\) (D033), membership frequency demoted to a descriptor; the piece rule frozen at 1000 s (D035).
• 保留集下载与 stage-1/2 还原（R21 step 4a，双执行者）持续推进：当日从 67 个交付增至 110 个，全部通过 sha256 与事件数检查。Held-out download and stage-1/2 reduction (R21 step 4a, dual executors) advanced from 67 to 110 deliveries in the day, all passing the sha256 and event-count checks.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• Hermes gen3 搜索代理 14:27Z 因上下文溢出退出（F036，F031 的重复），报告第 2–6 节为空。处置：Claude 接管收尾，其分离的链继续打分，未重启动代理。The Hermes gen3 search agent exited 14:27Z on context overflow (F036, a repeat of F031) with report sections 2–6 empty. Action: Claude took over the finalising; its detached chains kept scoring and the agent was not restarted.
• R18 复算发现 \(\varepsilon\) 家族成员频率对分段长度不稳定（T = live 稳定、T = pieces 崩塌）。处置：D035 退役 T = pieces，成员只用 T = live。R18 found the \(\varepsilon\)-family membership frequency unstable under the piece length (stable with T = live, collapsing with T = pieces). Action: D035 retires T = pieces; membership uses T = live only.
• RT-35：\(\varepsilon\) 聚类计数与"RT3 领先 5–6/8"被撤回（容差与顺序的产物）。处置：家族定义改为无序的自举成员频率（D031）。RT-35: the \(\varepsilon\)-cluster counts and "RT3 leads 5–6 of 8" withdrawn (artefacts of tolerance and order). Action: the family is redefined as order-free bootstrap membership (D031).

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

无（当日无新问题）。

None.

2026-10-18（UTC）2026-10-18 (UTC)

成果 / ResultsResults

• P006 冻结（D061,15:33Z）：83 个候选、23 个脚本、11 条命令全部哈希入清单（P006_freeze_manifest.json sha 8598b555…），commit 572c435。此后只有"可执行回归失败"能改代码。P006 frozen (D061, 15:33Z): 83 candidates, 23 scripts and 11 commands hashed into the manifest (P006_freeze_manifest.json sha 8598b555…), commit 572c435. From then on only a failing executable regression may change code.
• P006 保留集判决（E024,D068,21:36Z）：在 119 个从未参与开发的观测上，83 个候选中 79 个 Confirmed、4 个 Ambiguous、0 个 Not confirmed，分 23 个家族。信任状态：provisional（冻结判决，已由 Claude 逐字节重放与红队 QA）。来源：experiments/E024_p006_heldout_verdict.md。P006 held-out verdict (E024, D068, 21:36Z): on 119 observations that took no part in development, 79 of 83 candidates Confirmed, 4 Ambiguous, 0 Not confirmed, in 23 families. Trust state: Provisional (frozen verdict, replayed byte-identically by Claude and QA'd by red teams). Source: experiments/E024_p006_heldout_verdict.md.
• 判决的三个限定同日写入（D069）：(i) 大部分候选的增益集中在部分观测 —— 每观测读数下只有 6 个"宽"、73 个"集中"；(ii) Al-K 线门每个 cell 只在 0–3 个观测上触发，P006 没有检验它；(iii) 两个线门候选只在 5 个已测 cell 上确认。移到新天空的证据是 44/79 与 14/23 个家族。Three qualifiers written the same day (D069): (i) most candidates' gain is concentrated in part of the observations — under the per-observation reading only 6 are "broad" and 73 "concentrated"; (ii) the Al-K line gate fires on 0–3 observations per cell, so P006 does not test it; (iii) two line-gate candidates are confirmed on 5 tested cells only. The evidence for transfer to new sky is 44/79 and 14/23 families.
• R24（候选不变性）完成：83 个候选、36,520 个"观测 \(\times\) 相机"行，平坦角落视图下 0 个掩模改变；在归档 2.filter 内的池化包含度 0.986–0.995。R24 (candidate invariance) complete: 83 candidates, 36,520 observation \(\times\) camera rows, 0 mask changes under the flat-corner view; pooled containment inside the archived 2.filter 0.986–0.995.
• R27（单观测并行报告）在保留集上跑完：79 个 Confirmed 中，保留时间加权平均 \(\Delta\tau^2<0\) 的每 cell 为 64–76 个；共同保留观测中变好的中位比例 0.64–0.82。R27 (per-observation parallel report) ran on the held-out set: over the 79 Confirmed, the kept-time-weighted mean \(\Delta\tau^2<0\) for 64–76 per cell; the median fraction of commonly kept observations that improve is 0.64–0.82.

工作 / WorkWork

• 冻结前后共 12 个红队（RT-54…RT-69，免费 Hermes / codexnim，每个 0.6–3.8 h），全部由 Claude 复算后采纳；判决执行 QA（RT-62）0 条实质问题。12 red teams around the freeze (RT-54 … RT-69, free Hermes / codexnim, 0.6–3.8 h each), all adopted after Claude's recomputation; the execution QA of the verdict (RT-62) found 0 material.
• 冻结链第 2 次运行（codexnim,16:36Z–21:16Z）完成：缓存构建、线拟合 119 + 119（0 失败）、标记 476 行、三次打分与判决，自检 A–E 全过。Frozen chain run 2 (codexnim, 16:36Z–21:16Z) completed: cache build, 119 + 119 line fits (0 failed), 476 flag rows, three scoring runs and the verdict, self-checks A–E all pass.
• PI 当日的四个决定：D047（先把观测间谱一致性放前面，覆盖代价暂搁）、D048/D049（单观测安全区、并行报告不等权）、D050/D051（权重 = 保留时间；深/ blank 场读数定局）。Four PI decisions in the day: D047 (cross-observation consistency first, coverage set aside for now), D048/D049 (single-observation safe zone; the parallel report is not equal-weighted), D050/D051 (weight = kept time; the deep/blank reading settled).

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• 冻结链第 1 次运行在命令 0 停止（D062）：保留集观测 0302351401 有 25/39 个事件的 X = Y 为空，缓存构建报 1.82 TiB 内存错误。处置：按冻结案句子 7 修（丢弃空天空事件），写了会失败的回归 tests/regress_cache_nullsky.py（FAIL \(\to\) PASS），开发数据逐位不变；清单升 v2。两次运行都记录在案。Frozen chain run 1 stopped at command 0 (D062): held-out observation 0302351401 has 25/39 events with X = Y null, so the cache build raised a 1.82 TiB memory error. Action: fixed under sentence 7 of the freeze case (drop null-sky events), with a failing regression tests/regress_cache_nullsky.py (FAIL \(\to\) PASS) and bit-identical development data; the manifest went to v2. Both runs are on record.
• 第 2 次运行有一次命令 0 重叠重启（B004）：一次在只读沙箱里先跑、一次分离重启重叠，两者都停、部分产物删除后干净重跑。处置：Claude 独立重建 238/238 个缓存逐位相同；接受该次运行，偏差随结果一起报告。Run 2 had one command-0 restart overlap (B004): a first pass in the read-only sandbox and a detached relaunch overlapped, both were stopped, partials deleted and a clean run made. Action: Claude rebuilt 238/238 caches independently, byte-identical; the run is accepted and the deviation is reported with the result.
• RT-69 抓住判决读数的 5 处实质错误（Claude 自己的）：HO-blank MOS1 的 \(\sigma_R\) 范围写成 3.9–6.1%，实际 3.87–11.72%；"每个集和相机都降"过强（8 个 Confirmed 有非增益 cell）；"宽"的计数有三种口径（6 / 4 / 24）没有预先固定。处置：E024 修订（R031），三种口径并列报告、不选一个当头条。RT-69 caught 5 material errors in the verdict reading (Claude's own): the HO-blank MOS1 \(\sigma_R\) range was written 3.9–6.1% when it is 3.87–11.72%; "reduces in every set and camera" was too strong (8 of the Confirmed have a non-gain cell); the "broad" count has three denominators (6 / 4 / 24) with none fixed in advance. Action: E024 amended (R031); all three are reported side by side and none is chosen as the headline.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• （D063,17:30Z 已回答"好"）两个重新提问的默认值保留：线拟合失败使该集相机的线门 cell 无效；300 s / 无分段长度的次要读数保持放弃。(Answered "yes" 17:30Z, D063) The two re-asked defaults stand: a failed line fit makes the LG cells of that set and camera invalid; the 300 s / length-free secondary stays dropped.
• D047 是否也约束 P007（新测试）；默认"是"。Whether D047 also binds P007 (the new test); default "yes".

2026-10-19（UTC，最新）2026-10-19 (UTC, latest)

成果 / ResultsResults

• P006 读数三次收窄（RT-71/RT-73/R34，全部复算）：2.filter 是弱参照 —— 204 个非候选政策里也有 50 个通过同一规则；对 EH_B1000_n2（复现 espfilt + 硬段裁剪）只有 11/83 在 \(\delta_0=0.5\) pp 上 Confirmed（6 个家族），且这 11 个的保留时间都更短（0.32–0.76 对 0.81–0.93）；对"等保留时间的最好复现滤波器"配对自举 0–1/83（点估计 37/83）—— 未确立。信任状态：provisional。来源：E024 修订（R033–R036）；04_DECISION_LOG.md D070–D074。The P006 reading narrowed three times (RT-71/RT-73/R34, all replayed): 2.filter is a weak reference — 50 of 204 non-candidate policies also pass the same rule; against EH_B1000_n2 (reproduced espfilt + hard-band clip) only 11 of 83 are Confirmed at \(\delta_0=0.5\) pp (6 families), and all 11 keep strictly less time (0.32–0.76 vs 0.81–0.93); against the best reproduced-filter setting at matched kept time a paired bootstrap gives 0–1 of 83 (point estimate 37/83) — not established. Trust state: Provisional. Source: E024 amendments (R033–R036); 04_DECISION_LOG.md D070–D074.
• HO-M31 MOS1 的 \(-10.1\) pp 拆分（R29）：约 4.6 pp 来自一个损坏的归档 2.filter GTI（0202230301），约 5.5 pp 是候选在更难环境下的自身性质（去一观测法 \(-3.2\) 到 \(-6.1\) pp）。The HO-M31 MOS1 \(-10.1\) pp is split (R29): about 4.6 pp from one broken archived 2.filter GTI (0202230301) and about 5.5 pp a candidate property in a harder regime (leave-one-out \(-3.2\) to \(-6.1\) pp).
• P007 规则草稿 1（R37,07:35Z）：主估计量 = 六个 cell 的等权平均 \(\bar D\) 对 EH_B1000_n2（\(\delta_0=0.5\) pp，含伤害守卫与"六 cell 全有效"），状态 Confirmed / No gain \(\geq 0.5\) shown / Ambiguous / Invalid；主列表 = 发展数据上 \(\bar D\) 最低的 5 个候选。规模：真零假设下 \(\leq2\%\)；功效中位数约 0.06，最强候选约 0.51（R38 发展集替身，偏乐观）。来源：prereg/P007_rule_draft.md；D075/D077。P007 rule draft 1 (R37, 07:35Z): the primary estimand is the equal-weight mean \(\bar D\) over six cells vs EH_B1000_n2 (\(\delta_0=0.5\) pp, with a harm guard and all-cells-valid), states Confirmed / No gain \(\geq 0.5\) shown / Ambiguous / Invalid; the primary list is the 5 candidates with the lowest development \(\bar D\). Size: \(\leq2\%\) under true nulls; power median about 0.06, about 0.51 for the strongest (R38 development stand-ins, optimistic). Source: prereg/P007_rule_draft.md; D075/D077.
• 新参照 QFG（R33 Hermes 臂 + R39）：只用光变曲线、无 2.filter、无角落，通过发展筛选 8/8；在已用过的 P006 数据上对 2.filter Confirmed 6/6，但对 EH_B1000_n2 Not confirmed（\(\bar D=-0.70\) pp，Ambiguous）—— 一个比 EH 弱的"地板"。来源：D076/D078。The new reference QFG (R33 Hermes arm + R39): light curves only, no 2.filter, no corner, it passes the development screen 8/8; on the spent P006 data it is Confirmed 6/6 vs 2.filter but Not confirmed vs EH_B1000_n2 (\(\bar D=-0.70\) pp, Ambiguous) — a "floor" weaker than EH. Source: D076/D078.

工作 / WorkWork

• 研究步骤 R29–R39 全部完成（免费执行者 codexnim / Hermes 与 Claude 自算）：R31 新保留集普查（32 观测）、R32/R34 等保留时间读数、R33 参照设计、R35 功效定尺寸、R36 池化估计量、R38 样本外功效与规模。Research steps R29–R39 all finished (free executors codexnim / Hermes plus Claude's own runs): R31 the fresh held-out census (32 observations), R32/R34 the matched-kept-time readings, R33 the reference design, R35 power sizing, R36 the pooled estimand, R38 out-of-sample power and size.
• 红队 RT-72 至 RT-81 共 10 个，全部三审（triage）并复算；RT-72 的伤害规则错误（p84 当 p16）由 Claude 在三审中重算修正。10 red teams RT-72 to RT-81, all triaged and replayed; RT-72's harm-rule error (p84 counted as p16) was recomputed and corrected by Claude in triage.
• 本手册刷新（H008）派发：新增组会页与论文草稿、报告两页。This handbook refresh (H008) dispatched: a new group-meeting page plus the paper-draft and seminar pages.

问题 / ProblemsProblems

• RT-72 的方法错误：伤害按 p84 计而不是冻结规则的 p16，导致"EH_B1000_n2 在 8 个发展 cell 里伤害 4 个"是错的（实为 0/8）。处置：Claude 重算（0/8），错误与修正都记录在 D071。RT-72's method error: harm counted at p84 instead of the frozen rule's p16, so "EH_B1000_n2 harms 4 of 8 development cells" was false (it is 0/8). Action: Claude recomputed (0/8); both the error and the fix are recorded in D071.
• 等保留时间读数对种子脆弱（RT-77）：唯一幸存者在 \(\delta_0=0.5\) 上的计数随种子与抽样数在 0–1 之间摆动，且去掉 0202230301 后降到 0。处置：D074 把该读数降为描述性（P007 上功效约 0），P007 预先固定种子与抽样数并打印每个 cell 的边际。The matched-kept-time reading is seed-fragile (RT-77): the single survivor's count at \(\delta_0=0.5\) swings between 0 and 1 across seeds and draw counts, and goes to 0 without 0202230301. Action: D074 demotes the reading to descriptive (power about 0 at P007 size); P007 fixes seed and draw count in advance and prints each cell's margin.
• R36 的 0.42 功效数字被撤回（RT-81）：它是已用数据上的样本内值（HO-M31 从未被抽样、占平均 \(\bar D\) 的 61%），真零假设下的规模是 0/300 与 0.018/0.010。处置：D077 重写主估计量（伤害守卫、六 cell 全有效、状态改名），R038 记录在案。R36's 0.42 power figure withdrawn (RT-81): it is an in-sample value on spent data (HO-M31 never subsampled, supplying 61% of the mean \(\bar D\)); the true-null size is 0/300 and 0.018/0.010. Action: D077 rewrote the primary estimand (harm guard, all cells valid, renamed states); R038 records it.
• R39 与 RT-76 因 lang CPU 64% 暂缓启动（08:32Z 前完成）；无数据损失。R39 and RT-76 held while lang CPU was 64% (both finished before 08:32Z); no data lost.

待 PI 决定 / For the PIFor the PI

• P007 数据集：最小成本集 A（32 观测，默认）还是更大更有功效的集 C（54 观测，+22 观测、4 GB、约 5 h）。P007 data: the minimal-cost set A (32 observations, default) or the larger, more powerful set C (54 observations, +22 obs, 4 GB, about 5 h).
• NGC 5907 场（8 个观测，距发展观测 0.027°）是否接受为"同天扩展"并列明混杂；默认"接受"。Whether the NGC 5907 field (8 observations, 0.027° from development sky) is accepted as same-sky extension with the confounder stated; default "accept".
• D047（保留时间在判决之外）是否同样约束 P007；默认"是"。Whether D047 (kept time outside the verdict) also binds P007; default "yes".